Assessment of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA
Assessment of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA
复制标题
中美能源供应脆弱性评估
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-014-1071-1
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wu Gang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Lan-Cui;Wu Gang
美国和中国是世界上两个最大的能源消费国，能源供应脆弱性是能源政策的首要议题。在此基础上，构建了包括可持续性、稳定性、可靠性和多样化指标在内的能源供应脆弱性评价指标，并利用2001-2010年的数据对中美两国能源供应脆弱性的变化进行了评价和比较。研究发现，我国能源供应脆弱性的波动幅度大于美国。2001-2006年，中国能源供应脆弱性指数呈现快速上升趋势，2007-2010年，由于部分指标的不确定性，中国能源供应脆弱性指数呈现缓慢下降趋势;美国能源供应脆弱性在2000 - 2008年期间由于能源供应体系的稳定和全面而变化较小，但在2009年和2010年，由于人均能源消费量下降，此外，中国能源供应还面临着比美国更高的海上运输和地缘政治脆弱性。通过对中美两国能源供应脆弱性变化的比较，指出发展综合能源供应体系，降低能源消费增长控制、能源供应和进口多元化等主要影响指标的不确定性是重要的。
USA and China are the two largest energy-consuming countries, and energy supply vulnerability is a prior topic on energy policy. Then, we develop energy supply vulnerability assessment index including the sustainability, the stability, the reliability, and the diversification indicators to assess and compare the change of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA based on the data in 2001–2010. We found that the fluctuations of energy supply vulnerability in China are more than those of USA. In 2001–2006, the index of China’s energy supply vulnerability presented a quick uptrend, but it presented a slow downtrend in 2007–2010 due to the uncertainty of some indicators; energy supply vulnerability of USA presented smaller change from 2000 to 2008 because of the stable and comprehensive energy supply system, but in 2009 and 2010, it became obviously less than those in other years due to the decline of energy consumption per capita. Additionally, Chinese energy supply also faces higher maritime transportation and geopolitical vulnerability than that of USA. The comparisons of the change of energy supply vulnerability between China and USA show that it is important to develop comprehensive energy supply system to reduce the uncertainty of main effect indicators, such as the control of energy consumption growth, and the diversification of energy supply and import.