Epidemiological Characteristics and Prediction of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2012
Epidemiological Characteristics and Prediction of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2012
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DOI：
10.7314/apjcp.2014.15.16.6929
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lin, Kun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang, Wen-Rui;Fang, Jia-Ying;Lin, Kun
背景资料：分析1991 - 2012年我国食管癌死亡率分布，预测未来5年食管癌死亡率，为食管癌防治提供依据。材料与方法：利用1991 - 2012年中国食管癌死亡资料，描述食管癌标化死亡率变化、城乡差异、性别和年龄差异等流行病学特征。趋势面分析用于研究死亡率的地理分布。采用曲线估计、时间序列、灰色建模和联合点回归等方法对未来5年的死亡率进行预测。结果如下：我国食管癌发病率从2007年开始逐年上升，死亡率从2008年开始逐年上升，男性为8.72/10万，高于女性，农村为15.5/10万，高于城市。死亡率从45岁开始上升。地理分析显示，从中国南部到东部，从中国东北到中部，死亡率呈上升趋势。结论：食管癌的发病率和标化死亡率呈上升趋势。我国食管癌的区域性疾病控制应以东、中、北方地区为重点，防治的重点对象是45岁以上的农村男性。食管癌的死亡率在未来五年内将上升。
Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012, to forecast the mortality in the future five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, sex and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the next five years in the future. Results: In China, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer from 2007 and the mortality rate of esophageal cancer from 2008 increased yearly, with males at 8.72/105 being higher than females, and the countryside at 15.5/105 being higher than in the city. The mortality rate increased from age 45. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from southern to eastern China, and from northeast to central China. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer are rising. The regional disease control for esophageal cancer should be focused on eastern, central and northern regions China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men more than 45 years old. The mortality of esophageal cancer will rise in the next five years.