Characterization and Enhancement of Flight Planning Predictability under Wind Uncertainty
Characterization and Enhancement of Flight Planning Predictability under Wind Uncertainty
复制标题
风不确定性下飞行计划可预测性的表征和增强
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
D. González
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. García;M. Soler;D. González
一种新的研究，旨在表征和说明潜在的增强飞行计划的可预测性，由于风的不确定性的影响。鲁棒最优控制方法被用来计算鲁棒飞行计划。风的不确定性是从Encouragement Probabilities Forecasts中检索出来的。不同的风近似函数进行了比较，典型化的错误，并说明其重要性，准确解决的鲁棒最优控制问题。为量化飞行时间和燃料消耗方面的不确定性，确定了一套关键性能指标。介绍并讨论了两个不同的案例研究。第一个是基于2016年全年的代表性样本，针对单个始发地-目的地，预测时间步长为6小时。至于第二个，我们选择了最不确定的一天，连同一组多起点-目的地的航班，预测时间步长最多为2天。
A novel study is presented aiming at characterizing and illustrating potential enhancements in flight planning predictability due to the effects of wind uncertainty. A robust optimal control methodology is employed to calculate robust flight plans. Wind uncertainty is retrieved out of Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts. Different wind approximation functions are compared, typifying errors, and illustrating its importance for accurate solving of the robust optimal control problem. A set of key performance indicators is defined for the quantification of uncertainty in terms of flight time and fuel consumption. Two different case studies are presented and discussed. The first one is based on a representative sample of the whole 2016 year for a single origin-destination and a forecast time step of 6 hours. As for the second, we select the most uncertain day together with a multiorigin-destination set of flights with forecast time steps up to 2 days.