Spatial and Temporal Scales of Boundary Layer Wind Predictability in Response to Small-Amplitude Land Surface Uncertainty
Spatial and Temporal Scales of Boundary Layer Wind Predictability in Response to Small-Amplitude Land Surface Uncertainty
复制标题
响应小幅度地表不确定性的边界层风可预报性的时空尺度
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Hacker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Hacker
摘要利用天气研究与预报模式（WRF）作为大气代理，对边界层风场对陆面扰动响应的时空尺度进行了可预报性试验分析。土壤湿度被选为受不确定性影响的地表变量，因为众所周知，大气对其状态很敏感。一系列的实验与空间相关，小幅度扰动土壤水分导致的结果，显示可预测性对大气条件的依赖。主要结论如下：1）大气条件，包括静力不稳定和深对流的存在，决定了土壤湿度误差是否可能产生大的误差和局部可预报性的损失; 2）当大气抵抗大误差传递时，土壤湿度的不确定性尺度决定了边界层风的可预报性尺度，但当大气层敏感时，
Abstract Predictability experiments with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a proxy for the atmosphere are analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of boundary layer wind response to land surface perturbations. Soil moisture is chosen as the land surface variable subject to uncertainty because the atmosphere is known to be sensitive to its state. A range of experiments with spatially correlated, small-amplitude perturbations to soil moisture leads to results that show the dependence of predictability on atmospheric conditions. The primary conclusions are as follows: 1) atmospheric conditions, including static instability and the presence of deep convection, determine whether large errors and local loss of predictability are possible in response to soil moisture errors; 2) the scale of soil moisture uncertainty determines scales of PBL wind predictability when the atmosphere is resistant to upscale error transfer, but when the atmosphere is sensitive the scale and magnitude of soi...