Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA
Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y
复制
发表时间：
2016-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Hinkel, Jochen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Sally;Nicholls, Robert J.;Hinkel, Jochen
由于建立海平面上升情景的复杂性，气候引起的海平面上升的影响往往是从有限数量的模型中产生的，假设全球海平面均匀上升。更多的模式，包括模式反映区域差异的模式，将有助于确保可靠性和一系列预测，表明模式的一致和不一致之处。本文确定了九种新的模式尺度海平面上升情景（加上统一和模式总体平均上升）如何影响全球和区域沿海影响（湿地损失，由于侵蚀造成的旱地损失以及极端海平面每年淹没的预期人数）。DIVA沿海影响模型是在A1B情景下使用的，并假设随着条件的变化，防御措施没有升级。在九个气候模型中，有七个模型的影响与全球海平面上升成正比。对于其余两个模型，预测海平面上升高于平均水平，在北方纬度或人口密集的沿海地区，从而使全球影响预测与整体全球平均值相比有所偏差。使用总体平均均匀情景和模式情景比较了影响的区域差异：影响的最大相对差异发生在地中海沿岸，最大绝对差异发生在人口稠密的低洼海岸，如南亚、东南亚和东亚。对海平面上升影响的统一预测仍然是确定全球影响的一个有用方法，但改进的海平面上升区域尺度模型，特别是在半封闭海和人口稠密的低洼海岸周围，将提供更好的区域影响预测，并说明其不确定性。
Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties.