Predicting delivery date by ultrasound and last menstrual period in early gestation
Predicting delivery date by ultrasound and last menstrual period in early gestation
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DOI：
10.1016/s0029-7844(00)01131-5
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发表时间：
2001-02-01
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Hiilesmaa, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taipale, P;Hiilesmaa, V
目的：比较末次月经与超声对预产期的预测。方法：对17221例8 ~ 16周非选择性单胎妊娠进行超声扫描。最后一次月经（LMP）确定13541例，不确定3680例。使用线性回归模型，通过冠臀长、双顶骨直径（BPD）和股骨长度（FL）预测从扫描到自然分娩当天的妊娠持续时间，并将结果与基于LMP的估计结果进行比较。结果：在所有胎龄，超声在预测分娩日期方面优于某些LMP至少1.7天。当排除37周前分娩时，15-60 mm（对应8-12.5周）的冠臀长测量预测误差最低，为7.3天。在此之后，BPD（至少21 mm）显示类似的误差（7.3天），并且比冠臀长更精确。股骨长度的准确性略低于冠臀长度或BPD。使用任何两个或三个超声变量组合的回归模型都不能提高预测的准确性。当超声代替某些LMP时，早产率从10.3%下降到2.7% （P < 0.001）。结论：超声比LMP更准确地预测了妊娠期，并减少了妊娠期后的数量。冠臀长度15 ~ 60 mm优于BPD，但BPD（至少21 mm）更精确。结合多个超声波测量并不能提高测年的准确性。[j] .妇产科杂志2001；97:189-94。(C) 2001年由美国妇产科医师学会出版。
Objective: To compare last menstrual period and ultrasonography in predicting delivery date.Methods: We used ultrasound to scan 17,221 nonselected singleton pregnancies at 8-16 completed weeks. The last menstrual period (LMP) was considered certain in 13,541 and uncertain in 3680 cases. The duration of pregnancy from the scan to the day of spontaneous delivery was predicted by crown-rump length, biparietal diameter (BPD), and femur length (FL) using linear regression models, and the results were compared with estimates based on LMP.Results: At all gestational ages, ultrasound was superior to certain LMP in predicting the day of delivery by at least 1.7 days. When deliveries before 37 weeks were excluded, crown-rump length measurement of 15-60 mm (corresponding to 8-12.5 weeks) had the lowest prediction error of 7.3 days. After that time, BPD (at least 21 mm) showed a similar error (7.3 days) and was more precise than crown-rump length. Femur length was slightly less accurate than crown-rump length or BPD. Regression models using a combination of any two or three ultrasonic variables did not improve accuracy of prediction. When ultrasound was used instead of certain LMP, the number of postterm pregnancies decreased from 10.3% to 2.7% (P < .001).Conclusion: Ultrasound was more accurate than LMP in dating, and when it was used the number of postterm pregnancies decreased. Crown-rump length of 15-60 mm was superior to BPD, but then BPD (at least 21 mm) was more precise. Combining more than one ultrasonic measurements did not improve dating accuracy. (Obstet Gynecol 2001;97:189-94. (C) 2001 by The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.).