Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels
Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels
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评估全球变暖比工业化前水平高1.5至4°C导致气候变化对六个国家自然资本的潜在风险
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-023-03650-w
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Price J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Price J
我们展示了一个新框架的结果，该框架评估了六个国家（中国、巴西、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、加纳和印度）升温1.5-4°C时气候变化风险对自然资本的影响。与典型的生物多样性和气候变化研究不同，该评估还考虑了17种生态系统服务的土地覆盖和人口变化。在1.5°C时，气候变化（单独）对自然资本的潜在影响在巴西最大，在加纳最小。然而，如果将人口和土地覆盖变化考虑在内，所有国家预计面临高自然资本风险的地区将开始增加1.5°C。到2°C时，埃塞俄比亚和加纳的高风险地区将增加，尽管它们仅因气候而处于低风险。因此，目前对生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响以及潜在需求的变化加上变暖，超过了仅靠气候预测的变化。然而，这也表明存在适应潜力，特别是在升温< 2°C的情况下，通过恢复栖息地来降低风险。在变暖程度较低的情况下，有针对性地恢复边缘农业栖息地将增加可供人们使用的自然资本库，并为剩余的农业用地提供支持。到3°C，恢复带来的适应潜力将大大降低：巴西、印度和埃及< 1%；中国和埃塞俄比亚占7-8%；但在加纳仍占26%。这表明，恢复作为一种适应生物多样性的选择，因此，自然资本随着温度的升高而迅速减少。到2100年，考虑到人口变化（SSP2）、当前的生态足迹和当前的土地覆盖，即使升温仅为1.5°C，巴西的大部分地区、中国东部、埃及的大部分地区、埃塞俄比亚的大部分地区、加纳西南部（保护区除外）和印度的大部分地区也将面临高至极端的自然资本风险，其适应赤字可能相当于软适应极限。
We present the results from a new framework providing an assessment of how climate change risks to natural capital accrue with warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India). Unlike typical biodiversity and climate change studies, this assessment also considers landcover and population changes across a range of 17 ecosystem services. The potential impacts of climate change (alone) on natural capital at 1.5 °C is greatest in Brazil and least in Ghana. However, when population and landcover change are included, areas projected to be at high natural capital risk begin to accrue by 1.5 °C in all countries. By 2 °C, Ethiopia and Ghana show increasing areas at high risk, even though they are at low risk owing to climate alone. Thus, current impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services and changes in potential demand coupled with warming exceed changes projected by climate alone. However, this also indicates that there is adaptation potential, especially with warming of < 2 °C, to reduce risk through restoring habitat. At lower levels of warming, targeted restoration of marginal agricultural habitats would increase the bank of natural capital for use by people and provide support for remaining agricultural lands. By 3 °C, the adaptation potential from restoration is substantially less: < 1% in Brazil, India and Egypt; 7–8% in China and Ethiopia; but still 26% in Ghana. This indicates that restoration as an adaptation option for biodiversity, and thus, natural capital, rapidly decreases with increasing temperatures. By 2100, factoring in population change (SSP2), current ecological footprint, and current landcover, even with only 1.5 °C warming, large parts of Brazil, eastern China, most of Egypt, much of Ethiopia, southwestern Ghana (except for protected areas), and most of India are at high to extreme natural capital risk with an adaptation deficit potentially equating to a soft adaptation limit.