Domestic Water Demand Forecasting: A Static Microsimulation Approach
Domestic Water Demand Forecasting: A Static Microsimulation Approach
复制标题
生活用水需求预测：静态微观模拟方法
DOI：
10.1111/j.1747-6593.2002.tb00410.x
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
A. McDonald
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Williamson;G. Mitchell;A. McDonald
未来供水的规划取决于对可能需求的预测。现有的预测技术缺乏关于需求微观成分的可能趋势的空间相关信息。在次区域一级，目前的方法也低估了地区间的可变性。描述了一种静态微观模拟模型，该模型可以更有效地利用现有数据来生成生活用水量预测。空间上详细的合成微观数据根据政府官方人口预测得出的水平人口估计值重新加权。据预测，从1991年到2025年，约克郡水区的国内消费将增长30%，其中四分之三可归因于消费者行为的变化。
Planning the provision of a future water supply depends upon forecasts of likely demand. Existing forecasting techniques suffer from a lack of spatially relevant information on likely trends in the micro‐components of demand. At a sub‐regional level, current approaches also understate between‐area variability. A static micro‐simulation model is described, which makes more efficient use of existing data in producing forecasts of domestic water consumption. Spatially detailed synthetic microdata are reweighted towards level population estimates which are derived from official Government population projections. A 30% increase in domestic consumption between 1991 and 2025 is forecast for the Yorkshire Water region, three‐quarters of which is attributable to changes in consumer behaviour.