POPULATION-DYNAMICS OF MOSQUITO-BORNE DISEASE - EFFECTS OF FLIES WHICH BITE SOME PEOPLE MORE FREQUENTLY THAN OTHERS
POPULATION-DYNAMICS OF MOSQUITO-BORNE DISEASE - EFFECTS OF FLIES WHICH BITE SOME PEOPLE MORE FREQUENTLY THAN OTHERS
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DOI：
10.1016/0035-9203(86)90199-9
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发表时间：
1986-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
HASIBEDER, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DYE, C;HASIBEDER, G
探讨了媒介和宿主之间的非均匀混合（非随机接触）对任何蚊媒疾病的持久性、流行率和控制的影响。当蚊子集中于某些宿主时，疾病的基本繁殖率R（一种持久性的衡量标准）和媒介传播能力都大于或等于均匀混合时的值。现场数据表明，R可能是均匀混合情况下的2.5倍以上。我们的计算忽略了蚊子的斑块性和随机效应，低估了异质性的重要性。宿主选择限制了假设均匀混合的种群模型对疾病控制（疫苗、化疗、病媒控制）成功的预测的可靠性。特别是，根除或维持低流行率将比预期更加困难，除非局部控制使感染叮咬在社区的分布更接近均匀。年龄可以解释小社区（如农村）中咬人行为的大部分差异，在这种情况下，包含特定年龄咬人行为的模型将是控制规划中的适当工具。
The consequences of non-homogeneous mixing (non-random contact) between vectors and hosts for the persistence, prevalence, and hence control, of any mosquito-borne disease are explored. When mosquitoes concentrate on certain hosts, the basic reproductive rate, R, of the disease (a measure of persistence) and the vectorial capacity are both greater than or equal to their values under homogeneous mixing. Field data suggest that R could be more than two and a half times as large as it would be under homogeneous mixing. Our calculations underestimate the importance of heterogeneity by ignoring mosquito patchiness and stochastic effects. Host selection limits the dependability of predictions, made from population models which assume homogeneous mixing, about the success of disease control (vaccines, chemotherapy, vector control). In particular, eradication or the maintenance of low prevalence will be more difficult than expected, unless localized control makes the distribution of infective bites on a community more nearly uniform. Age may explain most of the variability in biting in small communities (e.g., rural villages), in which case models incorporating age-specific biting will be appropriate tools in control programmes.