Does the Expectation of Having to Look after Parents in the Future Affect Current Fertility
Does the Expectation of Having to Look after Parents in the Future Affect Current Fertility
复制标题
对未来必须照顾父母的期望会影响当前的生育能力吗
DOI：
10.1017/dem.2020.35
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Sakata K. and McKenzie C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shun Takagi;Yang Cao;Yasuhito Asano;Masatoshi Yoshikawa.;Shota MOCHINAGA;Sakata K. and McKenzie C.
这篇论文认为，对未来必须照顾年迈父母的期望可能是导致日本目前低生育率的一个主要因素。本文利用1998年和2008年的日本全国家庭调查（NFRJ）的数据，通过Poisson-logit障碍模型，考察了未来需要照顾父母的期望是否会影响夫妇目前的计划生育。夫妇计划生育决策的第一阶段模型是一个logit模型，它检查是否有任何孩子的决定，然后在第二阶段，一个泊松模型被应用于解释一对夫妇至少有一个孩子的条件下，一对夫妇有多少孩子。提出的经验证据表明，存在强烈的代际效应，对于战后的同龄人来说，不得不照顾父母的可能性增加，夫妇无子女的可能性也增加。
This paper argues that the expectation of having to provide care for aging parents in the future may be a major factor contributing to the current low fertility rate in Japan. Using data from the 1998 and 2008 National Family Research of Japan (NFRJ) surveys and a Poisson-logit hurdle model, this paper examines whether the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affects a couple's current family planning. The first-stage model of a couple's family planning decision is a logit model which examines the decision of whether or not to have any children, and then in the second stage a Poisson model is applied to explain the number of children a couple has conditional on the couple having at least one child. The empirical evidence presented suggests that there are strong generational effects, and that for the post-war cohort, an increase in the probability of having to look after a parent increases the probability of a couple being childless.