The Role of Energy in Development
The Role of Energy in Development
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能源在发展中的作用
DOI：
10.17159/2413-3051/2017/v28i1a1498
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Lloyd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Lloyd
摘要利用世界银行发展指标表明，能源的使用与几乎每一个可以想象的发展方面都密切相关。财富、健康、营养、水、基础设施、教育，甚至预期寿命本身，都与人均能源消耗密切相关。一般来说，采用的方法是将能源消耗分为三个或三个以上的类别，计算每个类别中相关指标的平均值，并证明一个类别的平均值与相邻类别的平均值在95%以上的置信水平上具有统计学差异。在预期寿命方面，在印度、中国、印度尼西亚和巴西，对预期寿命的变化与40年以上的能源消耗进行了追踪。结论是，能源是发展的必要因素，应被视为一项基本权利。能源对发展的影响在人均约2 000公斤油当量以下都能强烈感受到，在这一水平以上基本上已达到饱和。使用环境库兹涅茨曲线对数据进行定性评估。经合组织成员国的排放量似乎已经达到峰值，在可预见的未来，排放量可能会继续下降。然而，非经合组织国家的排放量在本世纪激增，在放缓之前，每年可能超过4万吨二氧化碳。从这个角度来看，《巴黎协定》将全球气温上升限制在1.5°C以下的意图似乎是不现实的。面对发展中国家的发展，任何大幅减少二氧化碳排放的希望似乎都注定要失败。关键词：发展，世界银行指标，预期寿命，未来排放亮点•许多发展指标与人均能源消耗密切相关。•不断增加的能源对发展的影响持续到每年人均约2000公斤石油当量。•在过去的50年里，人均能源消费的增长与预期寿命的增长密切相关。•如果所有发展中国家都努力实现人均年能源消耗2000公斤，二氧化碳排放量将继续上升。
Abstract Using World Bank Development Indicators, it is shown that the use of energy is strongly related to almost every conceivable aspect of development. Wealth, health, nutrition, water, infrastructure, education, even life expectancy itself, are strongly and significantly related to the consumption of energy per capita. In general, the approach taken was to break the consumption of energy into three or more classes, to calculate the average value of the relevant indicator in each class, and to demonstrate that the average value in one class was statistically different, at above the 95% confidence level, from the average in adjacent classes. In the case of life expectancy, the change in expectancy was tracked against energy consumption over 40 or more years, in India, China, Indonesia and Brazil. It is concluded that energy is such a necessary element in development that it should be seen as a basic right. The impact of energy on development is felt strongly up to about 2 000 kg oil equivalent per capita, and is essentially saturated above that level. The data are qualitatively assessed using the environmental Kuznets curve. The OECD nations appear to have peaked, and emissions may continue to drop for the foreseeable future. However, emissions from the non-OECD nations have surged in this millennium, and are likely to exceed 40 000 Mt CO2 per annum before slowing. In this light, the intent of the Paris Agreement to constrain global temperature rise to less than 1.5 °C, seems unrealistic. Any hopes of reducing carbon dioxide emissions significantly, in the face of development by the developing nations, seems doomed to failure. Keywords: development, World Bank Indicators, life expectancy, future emissions Highlights • Many development indicators are strongly related to the per-capita energy consumption. • The impacts of increasing energy on development continues up to about 2000 kg oil equivalent per capita per year. • Over the past 50 years, increases in per-capita energy consumption correlate strongly with increases in life expectancy. • If all developing nations strive for 2000 kg per capita per year energy consumption, CO2 emissions will continue to rise.