Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis
Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2018.304673
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Linas, Benjamin P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barocas, Joshua A.;White, Laura F.;Linas, Benjamin P.
目标.估计2011 - 2015年马萨诸塞州阿片类药物使用障碍（OUD）的年患病率。我们进行了多样本分层捕获-再捕获分析，以估计马萨诸塞州的OUD患病率。从2011年至2012年的6个行政数据库和2013年至2015年的7个数据库中确定的个人在个人层面进行了链接，并纳入分析。个体按年龄组、性别和居住县进行分层。2011年，马萨诸塞州11岁及以上人群的OUD患病率为2.72%，2012年为2.87%。2013年至2015年，患病率从3.87%上升到4.60%。最年轻年龄组（11-25岁）的患病率增幅最大，从2011年到2012年增加了76%，从2013年到2015年增加了42%。在马萨诸塞州，2015年11岁或以上人群的OUD患病率为4.6%。患有OUD的人数可能会增加，特别是在年轻人中。
Objectives. To estimate the annual prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) in Massachusetts from 2011 to 2015.Methods. We performed a multisample stratified capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Massachusetts. Individuals identified from 6 administrative databases for 2011 to 2012 and 7 databases for 2013 to 2015 were linked at the individual level and included in the analysis. Individuals were stratified by age group, sex, and county of residence.Results. The OUD prevalence in Massachusetts among people aged 11 years or older was 2.72% in 2011 and 2.87% in 2012. Between 2013 and 2015, the prevalence increased from 3.87% to 4.60%. The greatest increase in prevalence was observed among those in the youngest age group (11-25 years), a 76% increase from 2011 to 2012 and a 42% increase from 2013 to 2015.Conclusions. In Massachusetts, the OUD prevalence was 4.6% among people 11 years or older in 2015. The number of individuals with OUD is likely increasing, particularly among young people.