COVID-19 IMPACTS ON DESTITUTION IN THE UK
COVID-19 IMPACTS ON DESTITUTION IN THE UK
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COVID-19 对英国贫困的影响
DOI：
10.1017/nie.2020.31
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Elena Lisauskaite
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Bhattacharjee;Elena Lisauskaite
我们使用微观模拟结合COVID-19对个人和家庭影响的模型，以获得英国贫困家庭的预测。这些预测是在两个层面上估计的：英国的季度总量，2020年的所有季度;以及按地区，部门和家庭人口统计数据区分的2020年年度。整体而言，预计2020年第二季度的预期收入将比非COVID反事实水平高出约三倍，并在本年度余下时间大幅高于非COVID病例。失业率的增加最初主要是由于对自营职业者的影响，随着休假计划的减少，失业者也受到影响。对不同区域和部门的影响差异很大，不同家庭类型之间的差异也很大。受影响特别严重的部门是建筑业和制造业，而伦敦及其紧密相连的地区（东南部和中部地区）受到的影响最为严重。单身成年人家庭受害最大，不利影响随着家庭中儿童人数的增加而增加。对青年的影响仍然很大，这是一个特别令人担忧的迹象，预计25-54奥尔兹和老年人（75岁及以上）的贫困率也将大幅上升。此外，预计多重影响同时发生的社会和经济部门将受到严重的不利影响。因此，需要采取强有力和持续的缓解措施。
We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020 differentiated by region, sector and household demographics. At the aggregate level, destitution is projected to be about three times higher than the non-COVID counterfactual level in 2020Q2, as well as substantially higher than the non-COVID case for the remainder of the year. This increased destitution is initially largely due to the effect on the self-employed, and as the Furlough scheme is drawn down, also on the unemployed. Impacts upon different regions and sectors vary widely, and so do variations across different household types. The sectors particularly affected are construction and manufacturing, while London and its closely connected regions (South East and the Midlands) are most severely affected. Single adult households suffer the most, and the adverse effects increase with number of children in the household. That the effects upon youth remain high is a particularly worrying sign, and very high increases in destitution are also projected for 25–54 year olds and the elderly (75 years and older). Further, severe adverse effects are projected for sections of society and the economy where multiple impacts are coincident. Robust and sustained mitigation measures are therefore required.
SIDD：一个适应性强的框架，用于分析储蓄和就业决策至关重要的政策选择的分配影响
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Van De Ven J
通讯作者：
Van De Ven J