Epistemic uncertainty-based reliability analysis for engineering system with hybrid evidence and fuzzy variables
Epistemic uncertainty-based reliability analysis for engineering system with hybrid evidence and fuzzy variables
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cma.2019.06.036
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发表时间：
2019-10
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Chong Wang;H. Matthies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chong Wang;H. Matthies
随着可靠性分析理论的快速发展，具有混合认知不确定性的工程系统的安全评估日益受到关注。为了克服传统单一不确定性建模方法的缺陷，本文同时引入证据变量和模糊变量来描述认知不确定性参数。提出了一种新颖的双阶段可靠性分析框架，其中第一阶段通过置信度和合理性度量合并证据信息；第二阶段通过类似隶属函数的公式合并模糊信息。为了提高与各种联合焦点元素和 λ k 割区间变量相关的响应界限预测的计算效率，通过全局设计空间中的径向基函数构建了通用元模型。采用无重叠数据的拉丁超立方设计方法作为抽样策略。最后通过两个数值算例验证了该方法在数学理论和工程应用上的有效性。
With the rapid development of reliability analysis theory, the safety assessment for engineering systems with hybrid epistemic uncertainties has received increasing attentions. To overcome the imperfection of traditional single-uncertainty modeling methods, this paper introduces evidence variables and fuzzy variables simultaneously to describe the epistemic uncertain parameters. A novel dual-stage reliability analysis framework is presented, where the first stage incorporates the evidence information by the belief and plausibility measures; the second stage incorporates the fuzzy information by a membership function-like formula. To improve the computational efficiency of response bound prediction associated with various joint focal elements and λ k-cut interval variables, a universal metamodel is constructed by radial basis functions in the global design space. The Latin Hypercube design method without overlapped data is adopted as the sampling strategy. Finally, two numerical examples verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in both mathematical theory and engineering application.