EXPECTED TRAFFIC CONFLICT RATES AND THEIR USE IN PREDICTING ACCIDENTS
EXPECTED TRAFFIC CONFLICT RATES AND THEIR USE IN PREDICTING ACCIDENTS
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DOI：
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发表时间：
1985
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
W. D. Glauz;K. Bauer;D. J. Migletz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. D. Glauz;K. Bauer;D. J. Migletz
本研究的目的是建立交通冲突和事故之间的关系，并确定预期和异常冲突率给定的各种情况下。结论和建议所依据的数据是在1982年夏天在大堪萨斯城地区的46个信号和无信号交叉口收集的。结论仅限于白天（上午7：00至下午6：00）和工作日（星期一至星期四）的交通和干燥的路面条件。事故/冲突比率已被统计确定为四种类型的交叉口（信号控制的高流量，信号控制的中等流量，无信号控制的中等流量，无信号控制的低流量）的几种类型的碰撞。这些比率可以应用于可比的交叉口，以获得一个特定类型的预期事故率后，适当的冲突数据收集。此外，还制定了统计程序，以确定可被视为异常高的冲突率值。总的来说，某些类型的交通冲突是事故的良好替代品，因为它们产生的平均事故率估计几乎与历史事故数据产生的估计一样准确。因此，如果没有足够的事故数据来进行估计，冲突研究应该是有帮助的。
The purpose of this research was to establish relationships between traffic conflicts and accidents and to identify expected and abnormal conflict rates given various circumstances. The data on which the conclusions and recommendations are based were collected during the summer of 1982 at 46 signalized and unsignalized intersections in the greater Kansas City area. The conclusions are limited to daytime (7:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.) and weekday (Monday-Thursday) traffic and to dry pavement conditions. Accident/conflict ratios have been statistically determined for several types of collisions for each of the four types of intersections (signalized high volume, signalized medium volume, unsignalized meduim volume, and unsignalized low volume). These ratios can be applied to comparable intersections to obtain an expected accident rate of a specific type after the appropriate conflict data are collected. Also, statistical procedures were developed to determine conflict rate values that could be considered abnormally high. Overall, traffic conflicts of certain types are good surrogates for accidents in that they produce estimates of average accident rates nearly as accurate, and just as precise, as those produced from historical accident data. Therefore, if there are insufficient accident data to produce an estimate, a conflicts study should be helpful.