Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models
Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models
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DOI：
10.1002/2013gl058755
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发表时间：
2014-02-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hawkins, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tietsche, S.;Day, J. J.;Hawkins, E.
我们建立了第一个模型间比较的季节到年际的可预测性现今北极气候进行协调的理想化合奏预测与四个国家的最先进的全球气候模式。对于北极海冰的范围和体积，有潜在的预测能力，提前时间长达3年，潜在的预测误差在各个模型中具有相似的增长率和幅度。潜在预测误差的空间模式在模型之间有很大差异，但有些特征是鲁棒的。海冰密集度误差在边缘冰区最大，冬季在远离冰缘处几乎为零。海冰厚度误差在北冰洋沿岸被沿着放大，这种效应主要是由海冰平流造成的。这些结果给出了当前全球气候模式预测北极气候重要方面能力的上限。
We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.