Taking Technology to Task : The Skill Content of Technological Change in Early Twentieth Century
Taking Technology to Task : The Skill Content of Technological Change in Early Twentieth Century
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以技术为任务:20世纪初技术变革的技能内容
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
Rowena Gray
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作者：
Rowena Gray
本文呈现了二战前美国技术变革对劳动力市场影响的新图景。我表明，与最近的计算机化事件类似，制造业的电气化导致了技能分配的“空心化”，处于分配中间的工人输给了处于极端的工人。为了回答这个问题，我们利用《职业职称词典》（1949 年）中 4,000 多个职业的任务内容信息构建了一个新的数据集，详细介绍了 18801940 年美国职业的任务构成。这一独特的数据被用来衡量美国制造业的电气技能内容。 OLS 估计表明，相对于体力技能，电气增加了对文书、数字、规划和人际技能的需求，同时减少了对技能分布中间的灵巧密集型工作的相对需求。因此，二十世纪初的技术变革对于蓝领任务来说并不偏向技能，但总体上偏向技能。这些结果与 1950 年之前美国制造业内工资差异的下降趋势一致，并补充了之前关于 20 世纪初技术变革的工作，这些工作依赖于更粗略和非代表性的数据来分析这个问题。 OLS 结果通过 2SLS 分析得到进一步强化，该分析首先使用州级监管法律，其次使用州级地理与电力仪表的差异。 JEL 代码：J23、O33、N32、N33。关键词：技术变革、技能偏差。博士生：加州大学戴维斯分校经济系。电子邮件：regray@ucdavis.edu。我感谢经济史协会论文奖学金和加州大学戴维斯分校人文研究奖的支持。 Stanley Lawrence 和 Erika Zucca 提供了出色的研究帮助。加州大学戴维斯分校地理研究生小组的 Scott Phillips 提供了出色的 GIS 分析。本文受益于 Gregory Clark、Sun Go、Ian Keay、Jason Lee、Giovanni Peri、Ann Stevens、Alan Taylor 和 Greg Wright 以及西方经济协会年会、加州大学戴维斯分校 Applied Micro Brownbag、FRESH Belfast Meeting、爱尔兰经济协会年会 2010、加拿大经济协会年会 2010、SOLE 年会 2010、NBER 夏季学院 2010 的与会者的评论，埃哈 2010 年年会和 2010 年全加州大学经济史小组研究生研讨会。
This paper presents a new picture of the labor market e¤ects of technological change in preWWII United States. I show that, similar to the recent computerization episode, the electrication of the manufacturing sector led to a "hollowing out" of the skill distribution whereby workers in the middle of the distribution lost out to those at the extremes. To answer this question, a new dataset detailing the task composition of occupations in the United States for the period 18801940 was constructed using information about the task content of over 4,000 occupations from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (1949). This unique data was used to measure the skill content of electrication in U.S. manufacturing. OLS estimates show that electrication increased the demand for clerical, numerical, planning and people skills relative to manual skills while simultaneously reducing relative demand for dexterity-intensive jobs making up the middle of the skill distribution. Thus, early twentieth century technological change was unskill-biased for blue collar tasks but skillbiased on aggregate. These results are in line with the downward trend in wage di¤erentials within U.S. manufacturing up to 1950 and augment previous work on early twentieth century technological change which relied on more coarse and non-representative data to analyze this question. The OLS results are further reinforced by a 2SLS analysis, using, rstly, state-level regulation laws and, secondly, di¤erences in state-level geography to instrument for electrication. JEL Codes: J23, O33, N32, N33. Key Words: Technological change, skill bias. PhD Candidate: Department of Economics, UC Davis. Email: regray@ucdavis.edu. I acknowledge the support of an Economic History Association Dissertation Fellowship and a UC Davis Humanities Research Award. Stanley Lawrence and Erika Zucca provided excellent research assistance. Scott Phillips of the UC Davis Geography Graduate Group provided excellent GIS analysis. This paper has benetted from the comments of Gregory Clark, Sun Go, Ian Keay, Jason Lee, Giovanni Peri, Ann Stevens, Alan Taylor and Greg Wright as well as participants of the Western Economic Association Annual Meeting, UC Davis Applied Micro Brownbag, FRESH Belfast Meeting, Irish Economics Association Annual Meeting 2010, Canadian Economics Association Annual Meeting 2010, SOLE Annual Meeting 2010, NBER Summer Institute 2010, EHA Annual Meeting 2010 and All-UC Economic History Group Graduate Workshop 2010.