Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.
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DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(17)30156-0
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发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Armstrong B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Sera F;Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Huber V;Tong S;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Nascimento Saldiva PH;Lavigne E;Matus Correa P;Valdes Ortega N;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Pascal M;Goodman PG;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;Scortichini M;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Hurtado-Diaz M;Cesar Cruz J;Seposo X;Kim H;Tobias A;Iñiguez C;Forsberg B;Åström DO;Ragettli MS;Guo YL;Wu CF;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Bell ML;Dang TN;Van DD;Heaviside C;Vardoulakis S;Hajat S;Haines A;Armstrong B
气候变化可通过改变暴露在非最佳室外温度下而直接影响人类健康。然而，在全球范围内关于这一直接影响的证据有限，这主要是因为在建模和预测不同人口和气候之间复杂和高度不同的流行病学关系方面存在问题。我们通过多国多城市合作研究网络收集了1984年1月1日至2015年12月31日期间全球不同地点的所有原因或非外部原因的平均气温和死亡率的每日观测时间序列。我们通过两阶段时间序列设计估计了温度与死亡率的关系。我们使用五个大气环流模型生成了四种气候变化情景下的当前和未来日平均气温序列，这些情景由不同的温室气体排放轨迹确定。在假设没有适应或人口变化的情况下，我们预测了1990-2099年在每种气候变化情景下寒冷和炎热的超额死亡率及其净变化。我们的数据集包括全球9个地区23个国家和地区的451个地点，其中包括85例 879例 895例死亡病例。结果表明，平均而言，在高排放情景下，与温度有关的超额死亡率净增加，尽管存在重要的地理差异。在北欧、东亚和澳大利亚等温带地区，较弱的变暖和与冷有关的过剩的大幅减少将导致零或略为负的净影响，2090-99年与2010-19年相比，净变化在最高排放情景下从澳大利亚的−1.2%(经验95%CI−3·6到1·4)到东亚的−0.1%(−2·1到1.6)不等，尽管在整个世纪过程中下降的趋势将逆转。相反，较温暖的地区，如美洲或欧洲的中南部，特别是东南亚，将经历与热有关的影响急剧增加和极大的净增加，在最高排放情景下，本世纪末中美洲的净变化为3.0%(−3.0~9.3)，东南亚的净变化为12.7%(−4.7~28.1)。在涉及限制排放和进一步变暖的缓解战略的情景下，可以避免气温上升直接对健康造成的大部分影响。这项研究显示了气候变化对健康的负面影响，在高排放情景下，气候变化将不成比例地影响世界上较温暖和较贫穷的地区。与低排放情景相比，强调了缓解政策对于限制全球变暖和减少相关的健康风险的重要性。英国医学研究委员会。
Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.