The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States
The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States
复制标题
全球变暖对美国严重雷暴的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Romps
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Seeley;D. Romps
气温变暖将如何影响雷暴的严重程度？这个问题可以通过使用气候模式来诊断大尺度对流不稳定性（CAPE）和风切变的变化来探讨，这些条件已知有利于强雷暴的形成。首先，对来自耦合模式比对项目（CMIP5）第5阶段的气候模式集合进行了评估，评估了其在当前气候的春季和夏季重现这种风暴有利条件的无线电探空气候学的能力，重点是美国（CONUS）。在评估的11个气候模式中，确定了四个高效子集（GFDL CM3, GFDL- esm2m， MRI-CGCM3和NorESM1-M）。其次，由于RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放路径的强迫，在这些高性能模式中计算了21世纪有利于强雷暴的环境频率的变化。对于RCP8.5情景，模型预测了一致的conus -平均分数。
AbstractHow will warming temperatures influence thunderstorm severity? This question can be explored by using climate models to diagnose changes in large-scale convective instability (CAPE) and wind shear, conditions that are known to be conducive to the formation of severe thunderstorms. First, an ensemble of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated on its ability to reproduce a radiosonde climatology of such storm-favorable conditions in the current climate’s spring and summer seasons, focusing on the contiguous United States (CONUS). Of the 11 climate models evaluated, a high-performing subset of four (GFDL CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) is identified. Second, the twenty-first-century changes in the frequency of environments favorable to severe thunderstorms are calculated in these high-performing models as they are forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the models predict consistent CONUS-mean fracti...