Assessing marine operations with a Markov-switching autoregressive metocean model
Assessing marine operations with a Markov-switching autoregressive metocean model
复制标题
使用马尔可夫切换自回归气象海洋模型评估海洋作业
DOI：
10.1177/1475090220916084
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. D'Amico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Paterson;P. Thies;R. Sueur;J. Lonchampt;F. D'Amico
本文介绍了一种海洋气象建模方法，使用马尔可夫切换自回归模型产生随机风速和波高时间序列，包括在海洋风险规划软件工具。通过生成大量类似于关键海洋气象参数变化的随机天气序列，可以获得概率结果，以预测特定任务或海上施工阶段的天气窗口、延迟和后续操作持续时间的发生。为了科普每个项目海上天气条件的变化，随机天气模型必须适应每个站点的季节性和月际波动，生成真实的时间序列以支持天气风险评估。一个模型选择过程中提出的两个天气参数在三个位置，和人员转移任务是用来情境化一个现实的天气窗口分析。总结图证明了所提出的方法的有效性，一个小的扩展提高了该方法的适应性与风速和波高之间的强相关性的网站。它的结论是，整体方法可以产生合适的风速和波浪时间序列的海洋作业的评估，但建议该方法适用于其他网站和业务，以确定该方法的适应性范围广泛的海上位置。
This article presents a metocean modelling methodology using a Markov-switching autoregressive model to produce stochastic wind speed and wave height time series, for inclusion in marine risk planning software tools. By generating a large number of stochastic weather series that resemble the variability in key metocean parameters, probabilistic outcomes can be obtained to predict the occurrence of weather windows, delays and subsequent operational durations for specific tasks or offshore construction phases. To cope with the variation in the offshore weather conditions at each project, it is vital that a stochastic weather model is adaptable to seasonal and inter-monthly fluctuations at each site, generating realistic time series to support weather risk assessments. A model selection process is presented for both weather parameters across three locations, and a personnel transfer task is used to contextualise a realistic weather window analysis. Summarising plots demonstrate the validity of the presented methodology and that a small extension improves the adaptability of the approach for sites with strong correlations between wind speed and wave height. It is concluded that the overall methodology can produce suitable wind speed and wave time series for the assessment of marine operations, yet it is recommended that the methodology is applied to other sites and operations, to determine the method’s adaptability to a wide range of offshore locations.
DOI：
10.1111/j.2517-6161.1977.tb01600.x
发表时间：
1977-01-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-METHODOLOGICAL
影响因子：
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作者：
DEMPSTER, AP;LAIRD, NM;RUBIN, DB
通讯作者：
RUBIN, DB