Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply
Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2004.04.043
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Wu, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hallock, JL;Tharakan, PJ;Wu, W
由于石油对现代经济活动的关键重要性，以及石油的不可再生性质，在考虑到资源估计和需求增长的不确定性以及其他可能限制产量的因素的同时，努力估计未来石油生产的可能轨迹是极其重要的。在这项研究中，我们为常规石油供应制定了几种不同的未来情景，考虑到目前对资源可获得性和未来需求的估计范围，并假设产量将继续增长，不受政治或经济因素的限制，例如故意扣留；或长期的全球衰退。我们的结果预测，全球常规石油产量几乎肯定会在2004年至2037年之间开始不可逆转的下降，每年220亿桶至420亿桶，这取决于地壳中可获得的石油数量及其使用的增长速度。此外，我们发现，随着时间的推移，产油国国内常规石油使用量的增加，很可能会丧失这些国家向净消费国出口石油的能力，因此，到2030年，净出口国的数量将从今天的35个减少到12至28个，随后将减少。如果在石油价格见顶之前不减少对廉价石油的依赖，这些趋势的地缘政治和经济影响可能会很明显。(C)2004爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Due to the critical importance of oil to modern economic activity, and oil's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future oil production while accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates and demand growth, and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop several alternate future scenarios for conventional oil supply, given the current range of the estimates of resource availability and of future demand, and assuming that production will continue to increase unconstrained by political or economic factors such as deliberate withholdings; or prolonged global recession. Our results predict that global production of conventional oil will almost certainly begin an irreversible decline somewhere between 2004 and 2037, at 22 to 42 billion barrels per year, depending upon how much oil is available from the earth's crust and the growth rate in its use. In addition, we found that the increasing domestic use of conventional oil in oil-producing countries is very likely to eliminate over time the ability of these countries to export oil to net-consumer countries, so that the number of net-exporting countries will be reduced from 35 today to between 12 and 28 by 2030, and fewer subsequently. The geopolitical and economic implications of these trends are likely to be pronounced if reliance on cheap oil is not reduced prior to the peak. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.