Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable.

Endogenous Selection Bias: The Problem of Conditioning on a Collider Variable.
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DOI:
10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043455
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发表时间:
2014-07
影响因子:
10.5
通讯作者:
Winship C
Winship C
中科院分区:
法学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Elwert F;Winship C

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内生选择偏差是因果推理的核心问题。然而,认识到这个问题在实践中可能很困难。本文介绍了一个纯粹的图形化的方式来表征内源性选择偏差和理解其后果。我们使用因果图(直接非循环图,或DAG)来强调内源性选择偏差源于条件作用(例如,控制、分层或选择)在所谓的碰撞器变量上,即,一个变量本身由另外两个变量引起,一个是治疗(或与治疗相关),另一个是结果(或与结果相关)。内源性选择偏倚可能是由于直接调节结果变量、结果后变量、治疗后变量,甚至治疗前变量而产生的。我们强调了内源性选择偏差,共因混杂和过度控制偏差之间的区别,并讨论了来自社会分层,文化社会学,社会网络分析,政治社会学,社会人口学和教育社会学的许多例子。
Endogenous selection bias is a central problem for causal inference. Recognizing the problem, however, can be difficult in practice. This article introduces a purely graphical way of characterizing endogenous selection bias and of understanding its consequences. We use causal graphs (direct acyclic graphs, or DAGs) to highlight that endogenous selection bias stems from conditioning (e.g., controlling, stratifying, or selecting) on a so-called collider variable, i.e., a variable that is itself caused by two other variables, one that is (or is associated with) the treatment and another that is (or is associated with) the outcome. Endogenous selection bias can result from direct conditioning on the outcome variable, a post-outcome variable, a post-treatment variable, and even a pre-treatment variable. We highlight the difference between endogenous selection bias, common-cause confounding, and overcontrol bias and discuss numerous examples from social stratification, cultural sociology, social network analysis, political sociology, social demography, and the sociology of education.
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