Coronavirus from cities to forests: mapping vulnerable interfaces and hotspots for SARS-CoV-2 spillover from humans to biodiversity
Coronavirus from cities to forests: mapping vulnerable interfaces and hotspots for SARS-CoV-2 spillover from humans to biodiversity
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冠状病毒从城市到森林：绘制SARS-CoV-2从人类到生物多样性溢出的脆弱界面和热点
DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00099-1
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发表时间：
2021-04-20
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Salum MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Acosta AL;Xavier F;Saraiva A;Sabino J;Faria N;Sabino E;Salum MA
随着SARS-CoV-2在全球范围内的持续传播，感染者与野生动物之间相互作用的可能性趋于强烈，以及病毒从人类向生物多样性蔓延的可能性。这一点对野生动物保护和人类健康非常重要，因为感染SARS-CoV-2的高度易感动物群体（蝙蝠，鼬鼠和灵长类动物）的名单很大，一旦感染，这些群体可以作为载体和宿主，成为病毒突变和重组的基质，并增加新菌株出现的风险，这些菌株可以作为新疾病返回人类。关于促使冠状病毒从一个物种传播到另一个物种的诱导因素知之甚少，但可以认为，野生动物和人类之间的界面区，即人类之间的狭窄边缘，（城市、道路、公园、生态旅游地和农业边界）和森林生境是人类和野生动物之间互动增加的区域，因此比其他地区具有更高的病毒溢出事件的概率。在类似的情况下，森林破碎化造成的栖息地压缩也使物种和受感染的生物更加接近，减少了它们的活动范围，并增加了野生种群之间蔓延的风险。因此，人畜共患病的前提下，更大的人畜相互作用，更大的风险的病毒溢出，我们的目的是确定在巴西的病毒溢出的最敏感和最不敏感的地区。我们开发了一种方法相结合的生态建模（生物量2：模拟栖息地适合158蝙蝠和49灵长类动物物种）和地理信息系统（通过使用人口指标，道路和相关变量），以映射在巴西的溢出最敏感和最不敏感的地区。该地图指出了动物血清学监测的优先领域，以监测SARS-CoV-2毒株和变种在巴西生物多样性中的溢出和传播。在我们最相关的初步结果中，我们发现圣保罗大都市区周围的森林地区是最容易受到溢出影响的地区之一。这是由于高污染的人口密度和高密度的非人类灵长类动物与人类在这些过渡地区的相互作用。由于结果的高分辨率，该地图可用于保护和健康方面的行动规划和决策，因为易感区域不仅表示病毒从人类传播到动物的风险更大，而且还表示冠状病毒以新病毒株从动物群返回人类的风险更大。Fundação de安帕罗à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo（FAPESP; 2019/12988-7 and 2018/14389-0）.
With the continuous spreading of SARS-CoV-2 globally, the probability for interactions between humans who are infected and wildlife tends to grow intensely, as well as the likelihood of viral spillover from humans to biodiversity. This aspect is of great concern for wildlife conservation and human health, because the list of highly susceptible animal groups that have contracted SARS-CoV-2 (bats, mustelids, and primates) is large and, once infected, these groups can act as vectors and reservoirs, becoming a substrate for viral mutations and recombinations and boosting the risk of new strains emerging, which can return to humans as new diseases. Little is known about the inducing factors facilitating coronavirus spillover from one species to another, but it can be argued that interface zones between wild fauna and humans, which are narrow edges between anthropic (cities, roads, parks, ecotourism sites, and agricultural frontiers) and sylvatic habitat, are zones of increased interaction between humans and wild animals, and thus have a higher probability of viral spillover events than other areas. In a similar context, the habitat compression by forest fragmentation also brings species and infected beings closer, reducing their home ranges and intensifying the risk of spillover among wild populations. Therefore, on the basis of the premise for zoonosis—the greater human–animal interaction, the greater risk of viral spillover—we aimed to identify the most and least susceptible areas to viral spillover in Brazil. We developed an approach combining ecological modelling (Biomod2: modelling habitat suitability for 158 bat and 49 primate species) and geographical information systems (by using demographic indicators, roads, and related variables) to map the most and least susceptible areas to spillover in Brazil. This map indicates priority areas for serological surveillance of fauna for monitoring the spillover and circulation of SARS-CoV-2 strains and variants in Brazilian biodiversity. Among our most relevant preliminary results, we found that forested areas surrounding the São Paulo Metropolitan Area are among the most susceptible areas for spillover. This resulted from the combination of high contaminated human density and high density of non-human primates interacting with humans in these transitional areas. Because of the high resolution of the results, the map can be useful for action planning and decision making in conservation and health, since susceptible areas denote not only a greater risk of virus jumping from humans to animals, but also of coronaviruses returning from fauna to humans in new viral strains. Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP; 2019/12988-7 and 2018/14389-0).