Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi-scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii
Integrating physiology, population dynamics and climate to make multi-scale predictions for the spread of an invasive insect: the Argentine ant at Haleakala National Park, Hawaii
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.06037.x
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Lester, Philip J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hartley, Stephen;Krushelnycky, Paul D.;Lester, Philip J.
相对于根据分布与气候之间的统计相关性开发的模型，用于预测物种分布模式的机制模型具有特殊的优势和挑战。它们对于预测分布尚未达到平衡的入侵物种的范围特别有用。在这里，我们说明了入侵性阿根廷蚂蚁发育的生理模型如何与微场地适宜性、种群动态和气候梯度的差异联系起来；在完全不同的空间尺度上运行的过程。我们的研究位于夏威夷哈雷阿卡拉国家公园的亚高山灌木丛中，过去二十五年来，阿根廷蚂蚁 Linepithema humile 的传播已被记录在案。我们报告了四项主要结果。首先，在微观站点水平上，在裸露地面或岩石下的潜在蚂蚁巢穴中记录的度日累积量明显大于在草类植被的地被植物下的记录。其次，在人口边界未扩大的情况下测量的年度度日（456-521 度日）略高于早期实验室研究确定的发育要求（高于 15.9 摄氏度的 445 度日）。第三，人口扩张率与年度日呈很强的线性关系。最后，在更广泛的范围内绘制的土壤度日和气候变量之间的经验关系预测了哈雷阿卡拉阿根廷蚂蚁未来活动范围扩大的潜力，特别是下蚁群的西部和上蚁群的东部。由植被覆盖和最终气候变化驱动的合适微站点可用性的变化，提供了对阿根廷蚂蚁分布的分层理解，接近其气候耐受性的冷湿极限。我们的结论是，生理学、种群动态和气候测绘的整合有望对入侵物种的潜在传播做出更可靠的预测。
Mechanistic models for predicting species' distribution patterns present particular advantages and challenges relative to models developed from statistical correlations between distribution and climate. They can be especially useful for predicting the range of invasive species whose distribution has not yet reached equilibrium. Here, we illustrate how a physiological model of development for the invasive Argentine ant can be connected to differences in micro-site suitability, population dynamics and climatic gradients; processes operating at quite different spatial scales. Our study is located in the subalpine shrubland of Haleakala National Park, Hawaii, where the spread of Argentine ants Linepithema humile has been documented for the past twenty-five years. We report four main results. First, at a microsite level, the accumulation of degree-days recorded in potential ant nest sites under bare ground or rocks was significantly greater than under a groundcover of grassy vegetation. Second, annual degree-days measured where population boundaries have not expanded (456-521 degree-days), were just above the developmental requirements identified from earlier laboratory studies (445 degree-days above 15.9 degrees C). Third, rates of population expansion showed a strong linear relationship with annual degree-days. Finally, an empirical relationship between soil degree-days and climate variables mapped at a broader scale predicts the potential for future range expansion of Argentine ants at Haleakala, particularly to the west of the lower colony and the east of the upper colony. Variation in the availability of suitable microsites, driven by changes in vegetation cover and ultimately climate, provide a hierarchical understanding of the distribution of Argentine ants close to their cold-wet limit of climatic tolerances. We conclude that the integration of physiology, population dynamics and climate mapping holds much promise for making more robust predictions about the potential spread of invasive species.