Vulnerability of urban water infrastructures to climate change at city level
Vulnerability of urban water infrastructures to climate change at city level
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104918
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Xin Dong;Linkun Jiang;S. Zeng;Ru Guo;Yani Zeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xin Dong;Linkun Jiang;S. Zeng;Ru Guo;Yani Zeng
城市水利基础设施正面临着因全球气候变化而加剧的洪水和干旱带来的重大风险，而适应则高度依赖于当地条件。细粒度的漏洞分析是必要的，但几乎没有做什么。通过连续量化城市一级的暴露、敏感性和适应能力，发展了一种基于定量指标的城市水利基础设施脆弱性评估方法。当使用空间缩小尺度来预测当地降雨量以衡量城市洪涝和干旱的风险时，设计了33个指标来表征城市中与水有关的基础设施的敏感性和适应能力。在RCP8.5和RCP4.5两种排放情景下，对中国所在的22个省会城市进行了测试。对指标权重的敏感性分析表明，该评价体系具有较好的稳定性。约40%至50%的CASE城市将面临挑战，以更好地应对因基础设施脆弱而造成的洪水或/和干旱灾害。城市层面的脆弱性机制不呈现空间分布格局，是多因素驱动、异质性的，敏感性和适应能力的不同维度可以单独或综合主导。这些发现突显了对城市基础设施进行更多城市一级评估和针对城市具体情况作出反应的必要性。评估系统可作为一种实用工具，促进进一步了解气候脆弱性和制定有效的适应政策。
Urban water infrastructures are facing substantial risks from floods and droughts aggravated by global climate change, while the adaptation is highly dependent on local conditions. The fine-grained vulnerability analysis is necessary but little has been done. A quantitative indicator-based approach for vulnerability assessment of urban water infrastructures was developed, by successively quantifying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity at the city level. When a spatial downscaling was used to project local precipitations for measuring exposures to urban flooding and drought, 33 indicators were designed to characterize the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of water-related infrastructures in a city. The method was tested with 22 provincial capital cities of China under two emission scenarios including RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The sensitivity analysis on indicator weights indicates adequate stableness of the assessment system. Around 40~50% case cities would confront the challenges to better coping with flooding or/and drought hazards due to vulnerable infrastructures. Showing no spatial distribution pattern, the vulnerability mechanism at the city level is multifactorial driving and heterogeneous, while different dimensions of sensitivity and adaptive capacity may dominate separately or synthetically. These findings highlight the necessity of more city-level assessments and city-specific responses of urban infrastructures. The assessment system could serve as a practical tool to facilitate further understanding of climatic vulnerabilities and development of effective adaptation policies.