Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects
Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects
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DOI：
10.1111/add.15914
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发表时间：
2022-05-28
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Mair, Christina
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文献类型：
--
作者：
Gruenewald, Paul J.;Sumetsky, Natalie;Mair, Christina
背景和目标零售酒精饮料店似乎开在低土地和结构租金的需求来源附近的社区;他们可能会“聚集”，开在彼此附近或“搅拌”，随着时间的推移，相互取代。我们使用营业额的数量随着时间的推移，以衡量聚集和搅动和开放和关闭的网点对邻里犯罪的影响。设计中断准实验，使用空间面板人口数据从3768合成块区超过6年。美国加利福尼亚州奥克兰市。城市人口。基于人口普查的社会人口估计数以及与综合人口普查区的袭击、入室盗窃和抢劫犯罪事件有关的酒吧/酒馆、餐馆和场外商店的开业和关闭数。贝叶斯时空模型被用来评估聚集和搅动，并衡量开业/停业对犯罪的影响。调查结果搅拌是实质性的;所有商店的开业后关闭[酒吧/酒馆，相对风险（RR）= 50.9，95%可信区间（CI）= 3.0-449.9;餐馆，RR = 3.1，CI = 1.5-6.1;场外，RR = 23.5，CI = 2.0-129.8]。酒吧/酒馆和餐厅与其他商店聚集在一起（例如，RR = 1.02，CI = 1.00-1.03和RR = 1.01，CI = 1.00-1.01），但场外网点没有。与出口密度相关的协变效应，酒吧/酒馆开业与袭击增加3.5%（RR = 1.04，CI = 1.01-1.06）和抢劫增加6.9%（RR = 1.07，CI = 1.03-1.11）相关。餐馆开业与餐馆增加5.3%有关（RR = 1.05，CI = 1.04-1.06）。营业场所外商店的开设和关闭与所有三种犯罪类型无关。结论零售酒精零售店似乎遵循一种模式，随着时间的推移，彼此靠近并相互取代。酒吧、酒馆和餐馆的开业似乎与社区犯罪的增加有关。
Background and aims Retail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may 'agglomerate', open near to one another or 'churn', replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime. Design Interrupted quasi-experiments using spatial panel population data from 3768 synthetic block areas over 6 years. Setting City of Oakland, CA, USA. Participants City population. Measurements Census-based socio-demographic estimates and counts of openings and closings of bars/pubs, restaurants and off-premises outlets related to assault, burglary and robbery crime incidents across synthetic Census blocks. Bayesian space-time models were used to assess agglomeration and churning and measure impacts of openings/closings on crime. Findings Churning was substantial; openings followed closings for all outlets [bars/pubs, relative risk (RR) = 50.9, 95% credible interval (CI) = 3.0-449.9; restaurants, RR = 3.1, CI = 1.5-6.1; off-premises, RR = 23.5, CI = 2.0-129.8]. Bars/pub and restaurant openings agglomerated with other outlets (e.g., RR = 1.02, CI = 1.00-1.03 and RR = 1.01, CI = 1.00-1.01), but off-premises outlets did not. Covarying out effects related to outlet densities, bar/pub openings were related to a 3.5% increase in assaults (RR = 1.04, CI = 1.01-1.06) and 6.9% increase in robberies (RR = 1.07, CI = 1.03-1.11). Restaurant openings were related to a 5.3% increase in burglaries (RR = 1.05, CI = 1.04-1.06). Openings and closings of off-premises outlets were unrelated to all three crime types. Conclusions Retail alcohol outlets appear to follow a pattern of opening near to one another and replacing each other over time. Bar, pub and restaurant openings appear to be related to increases in neighborhood crime.