All Keynesians now? Public support for countercyclical government borrowing
All Keynesians now? Public support for countercyclical government borrowing
复制标题
现在都是凯恩斯主义者吗？
DOI：
10.1017/psrm.2019.48
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Timothy Hicks
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Barnes;Timothy Hicks
2008年金融危机之后，宏观经济政策重新回到政治议程，凯恩斯主义关于财政刺激的思想在专家圈的影响力上升（然后下降）。然而，关于凯恩斯主义的反周期支出处方是否以及何时得到公众的支持，人们知之甚少。我们使用一个调查实验，实地两次，以恢复英国受访者持有这种反周期态度的程度。我们的研究结果表明，2016年公众舆论是反周期的-凯恩斯主义。然后，我们使用Eurobarometer数据来估计2010-2017年期间人口的相同基本参数。观察结果验证了我们的实验结果为后期，但也提供了证据，英国人口在该时期开始时持有顺周期的观点。因此，在一个关键的宏观经济政策问题上，公众舆论似乎有着重要的动态。
Abstract In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy returned to the political agenda, and the influence of Keynesian ideas about fiscal stimulus rose (and then fell) in expert circles. Much less is known, however, about whether and when Keynesian prescriptions for countercyclical spending have any support among the general public. We use a survey experiment, fielded twice, to recover the extent to which UK respondents hold such countercyclical attitudes. Our results indicate that public opinion was countercyclical—Keynesian—in 2016. We then use Eurobarometer data to estimate the same basic parameter for the population for the period 2010–2017. The observational results validate our experimental findings for the later period, but also provide evidence that the UK population held procyclical views at the start of the period. Thus, there appear to be important dynamics in public opinion on a key macroeconomic policy issue.