Cost and optimal feed-in tariff for small scale photovoltaic systems in China
Cost and optimal feed-in tariff for small scale photovoltaic systems in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.014
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发表时间：
2010-11
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Jasper Rigter;Georgeta Vidican
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jasper Rigter;Georgeta Vidican
中国最近已成为太阳能光伏（PV）行业的主导者，2008年生产的太阳能电池占全球供应量的三分之一以上。然而，截至2008年，全球只有不到1%的安装位于中国。最近，日本政府宣布了扩大太阳能发电份额的宏伟目标。作为这一举措的一部分，决策者目前正在起草一项上网电价政策，以支持太阳能市场的发展。在本文中，我们的目的是计算这样的关税水平应该是什么。我们开发了一个封闭的形式方程的光伏成本，并使用预测的太阳能系统的价格，以获得最佳的上网电价，包括一个偏离率。重点是住宅和小型商业太阳能光伏装置的潜力。我们发现，在2005-2009年期间，在中国的小规模光伏发电的成本迅速下降。我们的分析还表明，中国各地区的最佳上网电价差异很大，根据电价的预期上涨，中国大部分地区可以实现电网平价。
China has recently become a dominant player in the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, producing more than one-third of the global supply of solar cells in 2008. However, as of 2008, less than 1% of global installations were based in China. Recently, the government has stated its grand ambitions of expanding the share of electricity derived from solar power. As part of this initiative, policy makers are currently in the process of drafting a feed-in tariff policy to support the development of the solar energy market. In this paper, we aim to calculate what the level of such a tariff should be. We develop a closed form equation for the cost of PV, and use forecasts on prices of solar systems to derive an optimal feed-in tariff, including a digression rate. The focus is on the potential of residential and small scale commercial solar PV installations. We show that the cost of small scale PV in China has decreased rapidly during the period 2005–2009. Our analysis also shows that optimal feed-in tariffs vary widely between regions within China, and that grid parity could be reached in large parts of the country depending on the expected escalation in electricity prices.