How Do Governments Determine Policy Priorities? Studying Development Strategies Through Spillover Networks
How Do Governments Determine Policy Priorities? Studying Development Strategies Through Spillover Networks
复制标题
政府如何确定政策优先事项？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3106028
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Omar A. Guerrero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gonzalo Castañeda;Florian Chávez;Omar A. Guerrero
确定政策优先事项对任何政府来说都是一项具有挑战性的任务，因为可能有多种目标需要同时实现，需要探索的多维政策空间，公共政策执行效率低下，政策问题之间的相互依赖性等。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个框架，将发展指标的演变建模为网络上的政治经济游戏。我们的方法占-最近记录-网络的政策问题之间的溢出效应，以及众所周知的政治经济问题所产生的预算分配。这使我们不仅可以推断出政策的优先事项，而且还可以推断出在每个政策问题上资源的有效利用。我们使用100多个国家11年来的发展指标数据，表明国家具体情况是政策优先事项有效性的核心决定因素。此外，我们的模型解释了众所周知的腐败与发展之间的关系的总体事实。最后，这一框架提供了一个新的分析工具，以生成关于发展战略的定制咨询意见。
Determining policy priorities is a challenging task for any government because there may be, for example, a multiplicity of objectives to be simultaneously attained, a multidimensional policy space to be explored, inefficiencies in the implementation of public policies, interdependencies between policy issues, etc. Altogether, these factor s generate a complex landscape that governments need to navigate in order to reach their goals. To address this problem, we develop a framework to model the evolution of development indicators as a political economy game on a network. Our approach accounts for the --recently documented-- network of spillovers between policy issues, as well as the well-known political economy problem arising from budget assignment. This allows us to infer not only policy priorities, but also the effective use of resources in each policy issue. Using development indicators data from more than 100 countries over 11 years, we show that the country-specific context is a central determinant of the effectiveness of policy priorities. In addition, our model explains well-known aggregate facts about the relationship between corruption and development. Finally, this framework provides a new analytic tool to generate bespoke advice on development strategies.