Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5
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在历史（1980-2005年）模拟中，对北太平洋上空的大气河流进行了评估，这些模拟来自参与耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第五阶段的28个模式，并与现代研究和应用回顾分析以及ERA中期再分析进行了比较。登陆日期被确定为在物理上接近海岸线的地方具有空间拉长的强风和潮湿特征。模型性能相对于重新分析被发现是相当可变的。大多数可以解决的空间结构的登陆事件，但很少正确地解决的频率分布，年际变化的数量和幅度的水分蒸发，和中位登陆纬度。使用代表性浓度路径（RCP）8.5（2070-2100）预测研究了一组高性能模型对21世纪末预计变暖的响应。选定的模型显示出扩大的频率分布，最大的增加发生在赤道的峰值历史频率。虽然与历史时期相比，与AR相关的水分输送大幅增加，但在预测的未来气候背景下，这种增加与更极端的AR事件无关。在21世纪末，出现多个AR日期的年份比历史时期更多。向赤道增加的峰值历史频率与850和250百帕纬向风的增加是同处一地的。水汽通量对变暖的响应主要是热力学的，但在其峰值分布的赤道方向，它主要是动力学响应。气候变暖的AR：CanESM 2、MPI-ESM-LR、CNRM-CM 5、ACCESS 1 -0、ACCESS 1 -3、EC-EARTH和CCSM 4。
Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Landfalling dates are identified as having spatially elongated high wind and moisture features in physical proximity to the coastline. Model performance relative to reanalysis is found to be quite variable. The majority can resolve the spatial structure of landfalling events, but few correctly resolve the frequency distribution, interannual variability in number and amplitude of moisture flux, and median landfalling latitude. The response of a subset of high-performing models to projected warming at the end of the 21st century is investigated using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2070–2100) projections. Selected models show a broadening of the frequency distribution, with the largest increase in frequency occurring equatorward of peak historical frequency. While there is a robust increase in AR-related moisture transport compared to the historical period, this increase is not linked to more extreme AR events within the context of the projected future climate. The occurrence of years with many AR dates is greater at the end of the 21st century than during the historical period. The equatorward increase in peak historical frequency is colocated with increases in the 850 and 250 hPa zonal winds. The response in moisture flux to warming is mostly thermodynamic, but equatorward of its peak distribution, it is dominated by a dynamic response. ARs to warming: CanESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, CNRM-CM5, ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, EC-EARTH, and CCSM4.