Limitations of Bayesian Evidence applied to cosmology
Limitations of Bayesian Evidence applied to cosmology
复制标题
贝叶斯证据应用于宇宙学的局限性
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13498.x
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Efstathiou G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Efstathiou G
宇宙学家对贝叶斯技术的应用越来越感兴趣，比如贝叶斯证据，用于模型选择。一个典型的例子是评估观测数据是否倾向于宇宙常数而不是演化中的暗能量。本文以暗能量为例，说明贝叶斯证据在模型和先验选择方面的主观判断的局限性。对最近宇宙学数据的分析表明，相对于暗能量的简单动力学模型，宇宙学常数的偏好在统计上是微不足道的。有人认为，对于嵌套问题，正如这里所考虑的，贝叶斯参数估计可以比计算动机不佳的物理模型的贝叶斯证据提供更多的信息。
There has been increasing interest by cosmologists in applying Bayesian techniques, such as Bayesian Evidence, for model selection. A typical example is in assessing whether observational data favour a cosmological constant over evolving dark energy. In this paper, the example of dark energy is used to illustrate limitations in the application of Bayesian Evidence associated with subjective judgements concerning the choice of model and priors. An analysis of recent cosmological data shows a statistically insignificant preference for a cosmological constant over simple dynamical models of dark energy. It is argued that for nested problems, as considered here, Bayesian parameter estimation can be more informative than computing Bayesian Evidence for poorly motivated physical models.