STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF HOMICIDE RATES - ARE THERE ANY INVARIANCES ACROSS TIME AND SOCIAL SPACE
STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF HOMICIDE RATES - ARE THERE ANY INVARIANCES ACROSS TIME AND SOCIAL SPACE
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DOI：
10.1086/229381
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发表时间：
1990-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
COHEN, LE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
LAND, KC;MCCALL, PL;COHEN, LE
这项研究表明，关于凶杀率结构协变量的实证文献在不同时期和不同地理单位中包含不一致的发现。研究结果的这种明显差异可能是由于特定研究的统计或方法学假象造成的，例如涵盖的不同时间段、分析单位、样本、模型规范以及统计分析和推理的问题。使用 11 个结构协变量的基线回归模型对 1960 年、1970 年和 1980 年的城市、大都市区和州进行了估计。由于几个回归变量之间存在高度共线性，该模型的经验估计表现出不稳定。应用主成分分析来简化结构协变量空间的维度。对回归模型的重新估计表明，时间和社会空间上的明显不一致大大减少了。讨论了研究结果对暴力犯罪实质性理论的理论意义。
This study demonstrate that the empirical literature on the structural convariates of homicide rates contains inconsistent findings across different time periods and different geographical units. This apparent variance of findings may be due to statistical or methodological artifacts of particular studies, such as different time periods covered, units of analysis, samples, model specification, and problems of statistical analysis and inference. A baseline regression model using 11 structural covariates is estimated for cities, metropolitan areas, and states in 1960, 1970, and 1980. The empirical estimates of this model exhibit instability because of high levels of collinearity among several regressors. Principal components analysis is applied to simplify the dimensionally of the structural covariate space. Reestimation of the regression model then indicates that the apparent inconsistencies across time and social space are greatly reduced. The theoretical significance of the findings for substantive theories of violent crime are discussed.