Predicting risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in the United Kingdom: prospective independent and external validation of QFractureScores.
Predicting risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in the United Kingdom: prospective independent and external validation of QFractureScores.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.d3651
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发表时间：
2011-06-22
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Altman DG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Collins GS;Mallett S;Altman DG
目的评价qfractures rescores在一项独立的英国普通医疗记录患者队列中预测10年骨质疏松和髋部骨折风险的性能。设计前瞻性队列研究。为健康改善网络（THIN）数据库设置364种英国一般做法。在1994年6月27日至2008年6月30日期间，共有220万成年人在全科诊所登记，年龄在30-85岁之间（1300万人年），其中25208例骨质疏松性骨折和12188例髋部骨折。主要观察指标：首先（偶发）骨质疏松性骨折（椎体、桡骨远端或髋部）和髋部偶发骨折的诊断记录在全科医疗记录中。qfracrescores的独立和外部验证结果显示，在骨质疏松症和髋部骨折终点均有良好的表现。鉴别和校准统计数据与qfracrescores内部验证报告的数据相当。髋部骨折评分对女性和男性都有更好的表现数据。它解释了63%的女性变异和60%的男性变异，接受者工作特征曲线下的面积分别为0.89和0.86。骨质疏松性骨折的风险评分解释了女性49%的变异和男性38%的变异，相应的接受者工作特征曲线下的面积分别为0.82和0.74。qfracrescores经过了很好的校准，预测的风险与所有10分之一的风险和所有年龄组的风险密切匹配。结论在英国，q骨折评分是预测患者10年骨质疏松和髋部骨折风险的有效工具。
Objective To evaluate the performance of the QFractureScores for predicting the 10 year risk of osteoporotic and hip fractures in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting 364 UK general practices contributing to The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Participants 2.2 million adults registered with a general practice between 27 June 1994 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-85 (13 million person years), with 25 208 osteoporotic fractures and 12 188 hip fractures. Main outcome measures First (incident) diagnosis of osteoporotic fracture (vertebra, distal radius, or hip) and incident hip fracture recorded in general practice records. Results Results from this independent and external validation of QFractureScores indicated good performance data for both osteoporotic and hip fracture end points. Discrimination and calibration statistics were comparable to those reported in the internal validation of QFractureScores. The hip fracture score had better performance data for both women and men. It explained 63% of the variation in women and 60% of the variation in men, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.86, respectively. The risk score for osteoporotic fracture explained 49% of the variation in women and 38% of the variation in men, with corresponding areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 and 0.74. QFractureScores were well calibrated, with predicted risks closely matching those across all 10ths of risk and for all age groups. Conclusion QFractureScores are useful tools for predicting the 10 year risk of osteoporotic and hip fractures in patients in the United Kingdom.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.b4229
发表时间：
2009-11-19
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hippisley-Cox J;Coupland C
通讯作者：
Coupland C
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Compston, J.;Cooper, A.;Wilkins, M.
通讯作者：
Wilkins, M.
影响因子：
4
作者：
Nguyen, N. D.;Frost, S. A.;Nguyen, T. V.
通讯作者：
Nguyen, T. V.
影响因子：
105.7
作者：
Altman, Douglas G.;Vergouwe, Yvonne;Moons, Karel G. M.
通讯作者：
Moons, Karel G. M.
影响因子：
4
作者：
Kanis, J. A.;Johnell, O.;Oden, A.;Johansson, H.;McCloskey, E.
通讯作者：
McCloskey, E.