On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change
On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change
复制标题
工业时代冰川质量损失对人为气候变化的归因
DOI：
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复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Marzeion
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Roe;J. E. Christian;B. Marzeion
抽象的。自工业时代开始以来，世界各地的小冰盖和冰川一直在失去质量并消退。据估计，这约占同期观测到的海平面上升的 30%。了解这种质量损失的自然和人为因素的相对重要性非常重要。最近的一项研究得出结论，对工业时代人为质量损失幅度的最佳估计仅为总量的 25%，这意味着主要是自然原因。在这里，我们表明，给定冰川总质量损失的人为部分仅取决于气候变化的自然和人为因素的幅度和速率以及冰川的响应时间。我们利用合成情景、古气候重建、数值气候模拟和仪器观测来考虑过去千年的气候变化。我们利用这些气候历史来驱动冰川模型，该模型可以代表各种冰川响应时间，并评估人为质量损失相对于观测到的质量损失的程度。前一千年的缓慢降温以及工业时代的人为快速变暖意味着，在小冰盖和冰川的整个响应时间范围内，人为质量损失幅度的中心估计基本上是观测到的质量损失的 100%。如果没有人为气候强迫，冰川的质量就会增加，那么人为影响的幅度可能会超过 100%。我们的结果使对冰川质量损失归因的评估与对气候变化其他方面（例如全球平均温度）的评估保持一致。此外，这些结果强化了科学和公众对百年规模冰川退缩作为人类活动明确后果的理解。
Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating since the start of the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss over the industrial era was only 25 % of the total, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the anthropogenic fraction of the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, palaeoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times, and we evaluate the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss relative to the observed mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed mass loss. The anthropogenic magnitude may exceed 100 % in the event that, without anthropogenic climate forcing, glaciers would otherwise have been gaining mass. Our results bring assessments of the attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Stuart-Smith, R. F.;Roe, G. H.;Allen, M. R.
通讯作者：
Allen, M. R.