The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?
The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?
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DOI：
10.3201/eid0302.970201
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发表时间：
1997-04
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Schmid, G P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaufmann, A F;Meltzer, M I;Schmid, G P
了解和量化生物恐怖主义袭击的影响，对于发展公共卫生防备这类袭击至关重要。我们构建了一个模型，比较了三种经典的生物战剂（炭疽杆菌、羊种布鲁氏菌和土拉弗朗西斯菌）在大城市郊区以气溶胶形式释放时的影响。该模型显示，生物恐怖主义袭击的经济影响范围从每10万人受影响的估计4.777亿美元（布鲁氏菌病假设）到每10万人受影响的262亿美元（炭疽假设）不等。快速实施攻击后预防计划是减少这些损失的最重要的手段。通过使用保险类比，我们的模型提供了经济理由的准备措施。
Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city. The model shows that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack can range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). Rapid implementation of a postattack prophylaxis program is the single most important means of reducing these losses. By using an insurance analogy, our model provides economic justification for preparedness measures.