Diagnosing Climate Change and Hydrological Responses in the Past Decades for a Minimally-disturbed Headwater Basin in South China
Diagnosing Climate Change and Hydrological Responses in the Past Decades for a Minimally-disturbed Headwater Basin in South China
复制标题
华南微扰源头流域近几十年来的气候变化和水文响应诊断
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-014-0758-0
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发表时间：
2014-07
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Qian Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wenhua Xiang;Ji Chen;Yueming Hu;Qian Wu
Identifying the trends of climate and hydrological changes is important for developing adaptive strategies for effective water resources management. Many studies focused on the prediction of future climate at a regional/global scale using General Circulation Models (GCM) or these models’ downscaled outcomes. However, diagnosing historical trends is regarded valuable for local areas, especially considering the spatial heterogeneity (both occurrence and magnitude) of climate change and uncertainty of climate projection. In this study, we selected the headwater area of the East River Basin in South China, which has minimal human-induced disturbance, to detect climate change and its hydrological changes over a past 50-year (1955–2004) time period. Although the climate warming agreed with the global situation, its magnitude was small and no sign of intensified rainfall or change of annual rainfall was found. Nevertheless, no-rain days increased and light-rain days decreased, indicating a longer dry interval between rainfall events. There was a significant downtrend of wind speed with a substantial reduction in magnitude, resulting in a decrease in the estimated potential evapotranspiration and a slight increase in the soil water content. Risks of flooding may not be a big concern, but water availability may be affected marginally in May and June due to the decreased rainfall and increased no-rain days. Overall, our results can improve the understanding of climate change and help watershed managers take precautions when facing climate change. This study also implies the necessity of investigating climate change at a local scale and at different time scales.
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影响因子：
6.7
作者：
I. Jung;Heejun Chang;J. Risley
通讯作者：
I. Jung;Heejun Chang;J. Risley
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Narsimlu;A. Gosain;B. R. Chahar
通讯作者：
B. Narsimlu;A. Gosain;B. R. Chahar
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2011-09
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Neitsch;J. Arnold;J. Kiniry;John R. Williams
通讯作者：
S. Neitsch;J. Arnold;J. Kiniry;John R. Williams
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
M. Wild;J. Grieser;C. Schär
通讯作者：
M. Wild;J. Grieser;C. Schär
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
K. Loague
通讯作者：
K. Loague