Molecular evolutionary analysis predicts the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States and Japan
Molecular evolutionary analysis predicts the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States and Japan
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DOI：
10.1007/s00280-004-0892-0
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Tanaka, Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mizokami, M;Tanaka, Y
对来自美国和日本的含有丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）的长期系列血清样本进行了分子计时，以确定HCV流行的时间起源。根据显著的分子钟，估计HCV基因型I在1910年左右首次出现在美国，而在日本HCV在1882年之前出现。通过回归分析和凝聚理论，HCV在美国人群中的广泛传播发生在20世纪60年代，比日本晚了大约30年。目前，日本的肝细胞癌（HCC）患病率明显高于美国。如果HCC是HCV暴露时间增加的一个函数，分子钟预测HCC在美国的负担将在未来二到三十年加速。
Long-term serial serum samples containing hepatitis C virus (HCV) from the US and Japan were molecularly clocked to determine the time-origin of the HCV epidemic. Based on the molecular clock that held significantly, it is estimated that HCV genotype I first appeared in the US around 1910 whereas in Japan HCV surfaced before 1882. By regression analyses and coalescent theory, widespread dissemination of HCV in the US population occurred during the 1960s, approximately 30 years later than in Japan. Currently, the prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is strikingly higher in Japan than in the US. If HCC is a function of increased HCV exposure time, the molecular clock predicts that the burden of HCC in the US will accelerate in the next two to three decades.