An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends
An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends
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DOI：
10.1029/2008jd010421
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发表时间：
2009-01-23
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Yoden, Shigeo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Randel, William J.;Shine, Keith P.;Yoden, Shigeo
根据卫星、无线电探空仪和激光雷达观测资料，对观测到的平流层温度变化和趋势进行了最新分析。卫星数据包括美国国家海洋和大气管理局一系列业务仪器的测量结果，包括微波探测装置（1979-2007年）和平流层探测装置（1979-2005年）。无线电探空仪的结果进行了比较，为六个不同的数据集，纳入各种同质性调整，以考虑仪器和观测实践的变化。平流层下部的温度变化表明，1979-2007年，地球仪大部分地区的冷却速度接近0.5 K/十年，不同的无线电探空仪和卫星数据集在细节上存在一些差异。在春季和夏季期间，在南极平流层下部观察到大幅度的冷却趋势，这与南极臭氧洞的发展有关。从无线电探空仪数据得出的平流层下部的趋势也分析了较长的记录（追溯到1958年）;在不同的均匀化数据集之间，卫星前时代（1958-1978年）的趋势有很大的范围，这意味着大的趋势不确定性。平流层中上层的趋势是从最新的SSU数据中得出的，同时考虑到由于观测到的大气CO2增加而引起的SSU加权函数的变化。结果表明，1979-2005年平均冷却0.5-1.5 K/十年，在平流层上部40-50公里附近的最大冷却。在1995-2005年的十年间，整个平流层的温度异常相对稳定。激光雷达温度测量在几个位置的长记录显示合理的协议与SSU的趋势，虽然采样的不确定性是大的本地化激光雷达测量。关于太阳活动周期对平流层温度影响的最新估计表明，在热带地区（类似于北纬30度）有一个统计上显著的信号，其幅度（太阳活动最大值减去太阳活动最小值）类似于0.5 K（平流层下部）到类似于1.0 K（平流层上部）。
An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979-2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979-2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of similar to 0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979-2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958-1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5-1.5 K/decade during 1979-2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40-50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995-2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (similar to 30 degrees N-S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of similar to 0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to similar to 1.0 K (upper stratosphere).