The Association between Regional Environmental Factors and Road Trauma Rates: A Geospatial Analysis of 10 Years of Road Traffic Crashes in British Columbia, Canada.
The Association between Regional Environmental Factors and Road Trauma Rates: A Geospatial Analysis of 10 Years of Road Traffic Crashes in British Columbia, Canada.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0153742
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Amram O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brubacher JR;Chan H;Erdelyi S;Schuurman N;Amram O
加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省是一个地理上幅员辽阔的司法管辖区，有着不同的环境和社会文化背景。这项横断面研究调查了100名警察巡逻过程中机动车撞车事故发生率的变化，以调查撞车事故与关键解释因素的关联。从警方的碰撞报告和保险索赔中确定了11起撞车事故(总撞车、受伤撞车、致命撞车、与速度有关的致命撞车、总死亡人数、单车夜间撞车事故、追尾事故以及涉及重型车辆、行人、骑自行车或骑摩托车的人的碰撞)，并将其映射到警察巡逻队。六个潜在的解释因素(交通执法强度、速度限制、气候、偏远地区、社会经济因素和饮酒)也与警察巡逻相对应。然后，我们使用负二项模型研究了碰撞与解释因素之间的关联，该模型以每次巡逻的碰撞次数为响应变量，以解释因素为协变量。2003至2012年间，共有1,434,239起保险索赔撞车事故，386,326起警方报告的撞车事故，以及3,404起致命撞车事故。在整个警察巡逻中，人均撞车率和潜在的解释因素存在显著差异。有几个因素与坠机率有关。限速≤为60公里/小时的道路的百分比与总撞车、受伤撞车、追尾事故和涉及行人、骑自行车的人和重型车辆的碰撞呈正相关；与单车夜间撞车、致命撞车、致命超速碰撞和总死亡呈负相关。冬季温度越高，总体碰撞、单车夜间碰撞、涉及重型车辆的碰撞以及总死亡人数越低。较低的社会经济地位与较高的伤害碰撞、行人碰撞、致命超速碰撞和致命碰撞的发生率相关。有专职交通警察的地区较少发生致命撞车事故和与车速有关的致命撞车事故，但追尾事故和涉及骑自行车或行人的撞车事故较多。每1000名司机的交通罚单数量与总撞车、致命撞车、总死亡、致命超速撞车、受伤撞车、单车夜间撞车和重型车辆撞车呈正相关。对这些关联的可能解释进行了讨论。不列颠哥伦比亚省各警察巡逻队的人均机动车撞车率差异很大。有些变化是由气候、道路类型、偏远程度、社会经济变量和执法强度等因素解释的。如果所有出行方式结合当地交通量考虑，解释因素预测撞车率的能力将会提高。
British Columbia, Canada is a geographically large jurisdiction with varied environmental and socio-cultural contexts. This cross-sectional study examined variation in motor vehicle crash rates across 100 police patrols to investigate the association of crashes with key explanatory factors. Eleven crash outcomes (total crashes, injury crashes, fatal crashes, speed related fatal crashes, total fatalities, single-vehicle night-time crashes, rear-end collisions, and collisions involving heavy vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, or motorcyclists) were identified from police collision reports and insurance claims and mapped to police patrols. Six potential explanatory factors (intensity of traffic law enforcement, speed limits, climate, remoteness, socio-economic factors, and alcohol consumption) were also mapped to police patrols. We then studied the association between crashes and explanatory factors using negative binomial models with crash count per patrol as the response variable and explanatory factors as covariates. Between 2003 and 2012 there were 1,434,239 insurance claim collisions, 386,326 police reported crashes, and 3,404 fatal crashes. Across police patrols, there was marked variation in per capita crash rate and in potential explanatory factors. Several factors were associated with crash rates. Percent roads with speed limits ≤ 60 km/hr was positively associated with total crashes, injury crashes, rear end collisions, and collisions involving pedestrians, cyclists, and heavy vehicles; and negatively associated with single vehicle night-time crashes, fatal crashes, fatal speeding crashes, and total fatalities. Higher winter temperature was associated with lower rates of overall collisions, single vehicle night-time collisions, collisions involving heavy vehicles, and total fatalities. Lower socio-economic status was associated with higher rates of injury collisions, pedestrian collisions, fatal speeding collisions, and fatal collisions. Regions with dedicated traffic officers had fewer fatal crashes and fewer fatal speed related crashes but more rear end crashes and more crashes involving cyclists or pedestrians. The number of traffic citations per 1000 drivers was positively associated with total crashes, fatal crashes, total fatalities, fatal speeding crashes, injury crashes, single vehicle night-time crashes, and heavy vehicle crashes. Possible explanations for these associations are discussed. There is wide variation in per capita rates of motor vehicle crashes across BC police patrols. Some variation is explained by factors such as climate, road type, remoteness, socioeconomic variables, and enforcement intensity. The ability of explanatory factors to predict crash rates would be improved if considered with local traffic volume by all travel modes.