Data-Driven Trajectory Uncertainty Quantification For Climbing Aircraft To Improve Ground-Based Trajectory Prediction
Data-Driven Trajectory Uncertainty Quantification For Climbing Aircraft To Improve Ground-Based Trajectory Prediction
复制标题
爬升飞机的数据驱动轨迹不确定性量化以改进地面轨迹预测
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Koyuncu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mevlut Uzun;E. Koyuncu
高效的轨迹预测工具将成为未来基于轨迹的操作（TBO）的关键功能。除了获胜和控制器动作之外，爬升飞行的不确定性是飞行轨迹预测误差的主要组成部分。由于操作问题，飞机起飞重量和爬升速度意图（定义爬升剖面的关键性能参数）并不完全可用于基于回合的轨迹预测基础设施。在空中交通流量管理的范围内，扇区进入和退出时间，包括爬升结束和下降开始的时间，是需求容量平衡过程的主要输入。在这项工作中，我们重点关注爬升轨迹的不确定性，以量化和分析它们对爬升时间到巡航高度的影响。我们通过飞机飞行记录数据集（即 QAR）使用模型驱动的数据统计方法。作为该分析的结果，生成了飞机起飞重量和速度意图的概率定义。获得这些爬升参数与飞行距离之间的回归，以减少战略层面的不确定性。此外，通过自适应不确定性降低来降低爬升不确定性也在飞行的战术层面得到了证明。通过模拟，说明了减少飞机质量的不确定性对爬升时间的影响。
Efficient trajectory prediction tools will be the crucial functions in future trajectory-based operations (TBO). In addition to win and controller actions, uncertainties in climbing flights are major components of prediction errors in a flight trajectory. Due to the operational concerns, aircraft take-off weight and climb speed intent, which are key performance parameters that define climb profiles, is not entirely available to round-based trajectory prediction infrastructure. In the scope of air traffic flow management, sector entry and exit times, including where the climb ends and descending starts, are the main inputs for demand- capacity balancing processes. In this work, we have focused on uncertainties over climb trajectory to quantify and analyze their impact on climb times to cruise altitudes. We have used model-driven data statistical approaches through aircraft flight record data sets (i.e. QAR). As result of this analyze, probabilistic definitions are generated for aircraft take-off weight and speed intent. The regression between these climb parameters and flight distance is acquired to reduce the uncertainty at strategical level. Moreover, reducing climb uncertainty through adaptive uncertainty reduction is also demonstrated at the tactical level of flight. Through the simulations, the impact of reducing the uncertainty in aircraft mass on climb time is illustrated.