How did Brexit affect UK trade?
How did Brexit affect UK trade?
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英国脱欧对英国贸易有何影响？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Oleksandr Shepotylo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jun Du;E. B. Satoğlu;Oleksandr Shepotylo
本文通过欧盟-英国贸易与合作协定评估英国脱欧对英国贸易的影响。利用2019年至2022年第一季度的COMTRADE数据和综合差中差（SDID）方法，我们构建了一个没有经历与欧盟贸易关系变化的反事实英国。我们表明，在研究期间，TCA对英国出口的负面、大的、统计上显著的影响一直存在。这凸显了自TCA生效以来，英国企业面临的持续出口挑战，并强调了系统思考英国脱欧后贸易政策的必要性。我们进一步的分析表明，由于TCA，英国出口到欧盟的商品品种的贸易能力显著收缩，这表明了对英国未来出口和生产力的一些严重的长期担忧。
ABSTRACT This paper assesses the effect of Brexit implemented through the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK trade. Using COMTRADE data for the period of 2019 up to 2022Q1, and the method of synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID), we build a counterfactual UK that did not experience the change in its trade relationships with the EU. We show that the negative, large, and statistically significant impact of the TCA on UK exports has persisted over the examined period. This highlights the continuing export challenges that UK firms have faced since the TCA was put in force and underscores the need to systemically think about the UK’s post-Brexit trade policy. Our further analysis suggests that the UK has experienced a significant contraction in its trading capacity in terms of the varieties of goods being exported to the EU due to the TCA, which signify some serious long-term concerns about the UK’s future exporting and productivity.