GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap
GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap
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DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2014.1003774
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发表时间：
2016-05-18
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Pollitt, Hector
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barker, Terry;Alexandri, Eva;Pollitt, Hector
四项政策可能会缩小基于当前（2013年）政策预计的2020年全球温室气体排放量与如果长期全球气温升高能够保持在国际商定的2摄氏度以下限值以下所需的减排量之间的差距。这四项政策是（1）具体的能源效率措施，（2）关闭效率最低的燃煤电厂，（3）最大限度地减少上游石油和天然气生产的甲烷排放，以及（4）加速（部分）逐步取消对化石燃料消费的补贴。在本文中，我们检验了国际能源署 (IEA) 的假设，即这些政策不会导致国内生产总值 (GDP) 损失，并使用 E3MG 全球宏观计量经济模型估计其就业影响。我们使用一组情景单独评估每项政策，然后考虑所有四项政策同时实施的结果。我们发现这些政策不足以缩小排放差距，总体减排量比 IEA 的发现低 30%。 2020 年世界 GDP 增长 0.5%，到 2020 年净创造约 600 万个就业岗位，失业率下降。 政策相关性 哥本哈根和坎昆协议下预期的温室气体排放量与合理机会实现 2 摄氏度目标的排放轨迹之间的差距需要额外的政策来弥补。本文使用全球模拟模型E3MG来分析IEA提出的一系列缩小差距的政策，并评估其宏观经济效应以及缩小差距的可行性。它通过逐年估算截至 2020 年不同政策、主要行业和 21 个世界地区对 GDP 和就业的影响，对 IEA 的评估进行了补充。
Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 degrees C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.Policy relevanceThe gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 degrees C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.