Does immigration crowd out foreign direct investment inflows? Tradeoff between contemporaneous FDI-immigration substitution and ethnic network externalities
Does immigration crowd out foreign direct investment inflows? Tradeoff between contemporaneous FDI-immigration substitution and ethnic network externalities
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DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.008
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发表时间：
2017-08
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
A. Tomohara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Tomohara
本研究利用1996年至2011年期间日本与29个外国直接投资和移民来源国/经济体之间的双边数据，考察了移民和流入日本的外国直接投资(FDI)之间的动态互动。虽然文献显示FDI与移民之间存在正向关系，但我区分了移民的短期和长期影响，并显示FDI与移民之间同时存在负相关关系。结果表明，移民流动抑制了FDI流入(FDI-移民替代)，尽管较大的移民存量会导致FDI流入(种族网络外部性)。因此，需要在权衡同时替代和网络效应带来的长期互补性之间进行权衡，以评估总体效果。虽然促进外来直接投资和增加移民经常被认为是解决国内储蓄和劳动力短缺的解决方案，但我们的结果对解决日益严峻的人口老龄化政策问题具有影响。
This study examines the dynamic interactions between immigration and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using bilateral data on these indicators between Japan and each of the 29 countries/economies of origin for both FDI and immigrants into Japan during 1996–2011. Although literature shows a positive FDI–migration relationship, I distinguish between short- and long-term effects of immigration, and show a contemporaneous negative relationship between FDI and immigration. The results show that immigration flows discourage FDI inflows (FDI–migration substitution), although larger immigration stocks induce FDI inflows (ethnic network externalities). Therefore, total effects need to be evaluated considering a tradeoff between contemporaneous substitution and the longer-term complementarity from network effects. While inward FDI promotion and immigration enhancement are often suggested as solutions to resolving shortages in domestic savings and labor, our results have implications for addressing the increasingly daunting policy issue of population aging.