Biofuels agriculture: landscape-scale trade-offs between fuel, economics, carbon, energy, food, and fiber
Biofuels agriculture: landscape-scale trade-offs between fuel, economics, carbon, energy, food, and fiber
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1757-1707.2010.01056.x
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Wang, Enli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bryan, Brett A.;King, Darran;Wang, Enli
第一代生物燃料是缓解气候变化所迫切需要的一种现有的、可扩展的可再生能源形式。在这项研究中，我们评估了与生物燃料农业相关的潜在利益，成本和权衡，以告知生物能源政策。我们评估了不同的气候变化和碳补贴方案在澳大利亚南部的1190万公顷（548万公顷耕地）地区。我们模拟了农业生产的空间分布，全生命周期的净温室气体（GHG）排放量和净能源，以及粮食农业（小麦，豆类，绵羊轮作）和生物燃料农业（小麦，油菜轮作乙醇/生物柴油生产）的经济盈利能力。与生物燃料农业相关的成本、收益和权衡因地理位置、气候变化和碳补贴水平而异。下面我们将对结果进行概括性描述，并提供（括号中）历史平均气候和20 t-1 CO2-e澳元碳补贴下的说明性结果。生物燃料农业在大面积（285万公顷）最具生产力的可耕地上利润更高，并生产大量生物燃料（1.7 GL/年）。生物燃料农业大大增加了经济利润（1.458亿美元/年或30%），但只有适度的净温室气体减排（-257万吨二氧化碳当量/年），对净能源生产的影响微不足道（-0.11 PJ/年）。然而，粮食产量大幅度下降，谷物（-304万吨/年）和羊肉（-189万头/年）。羊毛纤维产量也大幅下降（-23.19 kt yr-1）。虽然生物燃料农业可以产生短期效益，但它也有成本，生物燃料易受气候变暖和干旱的影响，使其成为一种短视的战略。尽管如此，在某些地区，生物燃料农业的盈利能力对气候变化和碳补贴水平的变化很强，如果能够管理权衡，这些地区可能成为气候变化长期多样化土地使用解决方案的一部分。
First-generation biofuels are an existing, scalable form of renewable energy of the type urgently required to mitigate climate change. In this study, we assessed the potential benefits, costs, and trade-offs associated with biofuels agriculture to inform bioenergy policy. We assessed different climate change and carbon subsidy scenarios in an 11.9 million ha (5.48 million ha arable) region in southern Australia. We modeled the spatial distribution of agricultural production, full life-cycle net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and net energy, and economic profitability for both food agriculture (wheat, legumes, sheep rotation) and biofuels agriculture (wheat, canola rotation for ethanol/biodiesel production). The costs, benefits, and trade-offs associated with biofuels agriculture varied geographically, with climate change, and with the level of carbon subsidy. Below we describe the results in general and provide (in parentheses) illustrative results under historical mean climate and a carbon subsidy of A$20 t-1 CO2-e. Biofuels agriculture was more profitable over an extensive area (2.85 million ha) of the most productive arable land and produced large quantities of biofuels (1.7 GL yr-1). Biofuels agriculture substantially increased economic profit (145.8 million $A yr-1 or 30%), but had only a modest net GHG abatement (-2.57 million t CO2-e yr-1), and a negligible effect on net energy production (-0.11 PJ yr-1). However, food production was considerably reduced in terms of grain (-3.04 million t yr-1) and sheep meat (-1.89 million head yr-1). Wool fiber production was also substantially reduced (-23.19 kt yr-1). While biofuels agriculture can produce short-term benefits, it also has costs, and the vulnerability of biofuels to climatic warming and drying renders it a myopic strategy. Nonetheless, in some areas the profitability of biofuels agriculture is robust to variation in climate and level of carbon subsidy and these areas may form part of a long-term diversified mix of land-use solutions to climate change if trade-offs can be managed.