Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1719903115
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发表时间：
2018-04-10
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zhuang Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McGuire AD;Lawrence DM;Koven C;Clein JS;Burke E;Chen G;Jafarov E;MacDougall AH;Marchenko S;Nicolsky D;Peng S;Rinke A;Ciais P;Gouttevin I;Hayes DJ;Ji D;Krinner G;Moore JC;Romanovsky V;Schädel C;Schaefer K;Schuur EAG;Zhuang Q
我们应用区域和全球尺度的生物地球化学模型，将解冻深度与土壤碳暴露相结合，评估了气候变化轨迹对北方多年冻土区未来碳储量演变的依赖性。我们的分析表明，在更积极的气候变化减缓途径下，北部永久冻土区可以作为碳的净汇。在不那么激进的途径下，该地区可能会成为大气中土壤碳的来源，但直到2100年之后才会出现实质性的净损失。这些结果表明，在本世纪剩下的时间里，有效的减缓努力可能会减弱永久冻土碳-气候反馈的负面影响。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5预估的驱动下，对2010 - 2299年北方多年冻土区的多年冻土面积和碳储量变化进行了基于模型的评估。所有模拟碳的模型都代表了土壤的深度，这是代表永久冻土碳-气候反馈所需的一个关键结构特征，但这并不是所有气候模型的普遍特征。在2010年至2299年期间，模拟表明RCP4.5气候的永久冻土损失在300万至500万平方公里之间，RCP8.5气候的永久冻土损失在600万至1600万平方公里之间。对于RCP4.5预测，土壤碳的累积变化在66-Pg C （1015-g碳）损失到70-Pg C增加之间变化。在RCP8.5预测中，土壤碳损失在74 ~ 652 Pg C之间（平均损失341 Pg C）。在RCP4.5预估中，植被碳的增加是预计生态系统碳净增加2299 （8- 244 pg C的增加）的主要原因。相比之下，在RCP8.5预估中，植被碳的增加不足以弥补5个模式中4个模式预估的碳损失；生态系统碳的变化范围从641 pg C损失到167 pg C增加（平均损失208 pg C）。这些模型表明，生态系统碳的大量净损失要到2100年以后才会发生。这一评估表明，在本世纪余下的时间里，有效的减缓努力可以减弱永久冻土碳-气候反馈的负面影响。
We applied regional and global-scale biogeochemical models that coupled thaw depth with soil carbon exposure to evaluate the dependence of the evolution of future carbon storage in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Our analysis indicates that the northern permafrost region could act as a net sink for carbon under more aggressive climate change mitigation pathways. Under less aggressive pathways, the region would likely act as a source of soil carbon to the atmosphere, but substantial net losses would not occur until after 2100. These results suggest that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon–climate feedback.
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