The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008-14 over Jiangxi Province,East China
The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008-14 over Jiangxi Province,East China
复制标题
2008-14年冬季江西省71次播云作业的域外效应
DOI：
10.1007/s13351-019-8122-1
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Gao Liangshu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Weijian;Yao Zhanyu;Guo Jianping;Tan Chao;Jia Shuo;Zhao Wenhui;Zhang Pei;Gao Liangshu
人工影响天气对目标地区降水的影响已被广泛报道，但对中国顺风（区域外）影响的具体了解甚少。基于冬季降水资料，采用修正的历史目标/控制回归分析方法，对江西省北部冬季（11 - 2月）飞机播云项目的额外面积效应进行了估算。结果表明，下风站整体季节平均降雨量增加了21.67% （p=0.0013）。这种增强效果在距离目标区120公里处被检测到。利用物理测试比较了2014年11月29日播种前后的云特征。通过对云单元的跟踪，对江西气象雷达资料中云单元的特征进行了后验分析。在作业播云后的两个多小时内，目标单元的雷达特征相对于控制单元增强，这表明了区域外播云效果。这一发现可以用来帮助缓解中国的水资源短缺。
Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported,but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China.We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter.The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67% (p=0.0013).This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area.Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014.A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units.Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding,which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect.The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.