The economic burden of malaria
The economic burden of malaria
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2001.64.85
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Sachs, JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gallup, JL;Sachs, JD
疟疾和贫困密切相关。控制热带地理位置、殖民地历史和地理隔离等因素，1995年疟疾高发国家的收入水平仅为非疟疾国家的33%，无论这些国家是否在非洲。贫穷国家疟疾发病率高主要不是贫困造成的。疟疾在地理上是特定的。支持更有效的疟疾蚊子媒介的生态条件主要决定了疾病的分布和强度。在受影响最严重的热带国家消除疟疾的密集努力在很大程度上是无效的。过去半个世纪消灭疟疾的国家都是亚热带国家或岛屿国家。这些国家在消灭疟疾后的5年内的经济增长通常大大高于邻国的增长。1965-1990年期间的跨国回归证实了疟疾与经济增长之间的关系。考虑到最初的贫困、经济政策、热带地理位置和预期寿命等因素，疟疾高发国家的人均年增长率低1.3%，疟疾低10%与高出0.3%相关。控制许多其他热带病并不能改变疟疾与经济增长的相关性，这些疾病本身与经济增长也没有明显的负相关。疟疾的第二个独立指标与1980-1996年期间的经济增长的相关性稍高一些。我们推测可能导致疟疾对经济产生如此大影响的机制，例如外国投资和该国境内的经济网络。
Malaria and poverty are intimately connected. Controlling for factors such as tropical location, colonial history, and geographical isolation, countries with intensive malaria had income levels in 1995 of only 33% that of countries without malaria, whether or not the countries were in Africa. The high levels of malaria in poor countries are not mainly a consequence of poverty. Malaria is geographically specific. The ecological conditions that support the more efficient malaria mosquito vectors primarily determine the distribution and intensity of the disease. Intensive efforts to eliminate malaria in the most severely affected tropical countries have been largely ineffective. Countries that have eliminated malaria in the past half century have all been either subtropical or islands. These countries' economic growth in the 5 years after eliminating malaria has usually been substantially higher than growth in the neighboring countries. Cross-country regressions for the 1965-1990 period confirm the relationship between malaria and economic growth. Taking into account initial poverty, economic policy, tropical location, and life expectancy, among other factors, countries with intensive malaria grew 1.3% less per person per year, and a 10% reduction in malaria was associated with 0.3% higher growth. Controlling for many other tropical diseases does not change the correlation of malaria with economic growth, and these diseases are not themselves significantly negatively correlated with economic growth. A second independent measure of malaria has a slightly higher correlation with economic growth in the 1980-1996 period. We speculate about the mechanisms that could cause malaria to have such a large impact on the economy, such as foreign investment and economic networks within the country.