The Impact of the Central America Free Trade Agreement on the Central American Textile Maquila Industry
The Impact of the Central America Free Trade Agreement on the Central American Textile Maquila Industry
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中美洲自由贸易协定对中美洲纺织加工工业的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Torero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Jansen;S. Morley;Gloria Kessler;Valeria Piñeiro;M. V. Sánchez;M. Torero
“虽然《中美洲自由贸易协定》(CAFTA) 在所有五个中美洲国家中仍然是一个备受争议的问题，但大多数讨论都是基于先入为主的观点，而不是以研究结果为基础。本文的出发点是，尽管根据加勒比海盆地制定的原产地规则，纺织加工出口到美国市场的优惠准入已经存在，但该协议中有关纺织加工出口行业的条款可能会对家庭福利产生重大影响。 CAFTA 对中美洲出口加工生产的作用是永久性地扩大对出口加工行业的投入的原产地自由化规则（由美国临时单方面授予，可能会在 2008 年废除）。 CBI/CBTPA 与包括 CAFTA 的情况，而不是 CAFTA 之前和之后的情况，本文的目的是分析 CAFTA 对中美洲服装价值链的可能影响；评估服装行业生产力增长的瓶颈和限制；并确定价值链持续成功的要求。我们还使用了可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型，并将其与基于家庭调查的微观模拟相结合，以量化 CAFTA 中的出口加工规定对经济增长、就业和贫困的可能影响。结果表明，根据国家的不同，CAFTA 中的出口加工规定每年可增加 0.01% 至 1.4% 的经济增长，特别是每年可增加 0.005% 至 1.4% 的就业。因此，根据具体国家的情况，相对于没有 CAFTA 出口加工条款的情况，总贫困率可能每年下降近乎于零（哥斯达黎加）至 0.73%（洪都拉斯）。但是，基于模型的分析并未考虑到纺织品和服装配额制度（所谓的纺织品和服装协议，或 ATC）已于 1 月 1 日到期这一事实。 2005年，大大改善了中国和其他低成本出口商进入美国市场的机会，但从长远来看，市场份额将越来越多地流向具有最高比较优势的国家。论文中的定性分析表明，中美洲出口加工行业的生存战略应包括两个主要要素：首先，为了最大限度地利用CAFTA下的自由化原产地规则，各国应进一步采取措施。其次，确定市场定位，要求由尊重社会责任的生产条件并能够提供快速响应的公司生产更高质量的服装，这是中美洲纺织工业相对于亚洲供应商形成比较优势的关键手段，这是在竞争日益激烈的出口市场中生存所必需的。”摘自作者摘要
"While the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) remains a hotly debated issue in all five Central American countries that are part of the treaty, most discussions are based on preconceived opinions rather than grounded in research-based results. The point of departure of the paper is that the provisions in the agreement concerning the textile maquila industry are likely to have a significant impact on household welfare, despite the already existing preferential access of textile maquila exports to the U.S. market under the rules of origin set by the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) and the U.S.–Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA). What CAFTA does for maquila production in Central America is to make permanent and expand the liberalized rules of origin (granted temporarily and unilaterally by the United States and likely to be revoked in 2008) for inputs to the maquila industry. Therefore, to assess the true impact of the maquila provisions in CAFTA, we need to compare the situations without CAFTA or the CBI/CBTPA with the situation that includes CAFTA, instead of the situations before and after CAFTA. The objectives of the paper are to analyze the likely impacts of CAFTA on the apparel value chain in Central America; assess the bottlenecks and constraints to productivity growth in the apparel industry; and identify the requirements for continuing success in the value chain. In researching the paper, we made use of a variety of methodologies, including literature review, Internet sourcing, field visits, and personal interviews with key players in the sector in all five Central American CAFTA countries. We also used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and combined these with microsimulations based on household surveys, in order to quantify the likely effect of the maquila provisions in CAFTA on economic growth, employment, and poverty. The results suggest that, depending on the country, the maquila provisions in CAFTA add between 0.01% and 1.4% to annual economic growth and between 0.005% and 1.4% per year to employment of particularly female unskilled labor. As a result and depending on the specific country, the rate of total poverty is likely to fall by between virtually zero (Costa Rica) and 0.73% (Honduras) per year relative to a situation without CAFTA's maquila provisions. However, the model-based analyses do not take account of the fact that the quota system for textiles and clothing (the so-called Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, or ATC) expired January 1, 2005, greatly improving the access of China and other low-cost exporters to the U.S. market. Although China has so far voluntarily restricted its apparel exports to the U.S. market, in the longer term market share will increasingly go to countries with the highest comparative advantage. The qualitative analysis in the paper suggests that a survival strategy for the Central American maquila industry should consist of two main elements. First, and in order to make maximum use of the liberalized rules of origin under CAFTA, countries should increasingly move toward full-package production instead of pure assembly. Second, identification of market niches that demand higher-quality apparel produced by firms that respect socially responsible production conditions and are able to deliver fast responsiveness is a crucial means by which the Central American textile industry can develop a comparative advantage vis-a-vis Asian suppliers, needed to survive in an increasingly competitive export market." from Authors' Abstract
孤儿的死亡率、流动性和学业成果：来自马拉维的证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
International Food Policy Research Institute Discussion Paper (査読済み、印刷・編集中)(未定)
影响因子：
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作者：
Mika Ueyama;Futoshi Yamauchi;Mika Ueyama;Mika Ueyama;Mika Ueyama
通讯作者：
Mika Ueyama