Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem
Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem
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DOI：
10.1029/2018ef000952
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Schmale;S. Arnold;K. Law;T. Thorp;S. Anenberg;W. Simpson;J. Mao;K. Pratt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Schmale;S. Arnold;K. Law;T. Thorp;S. Anenberg;W. Simpson;J. Mao;K. Pratt
北极地区由当地排放源造成的空气污染是一个重要但往往被忽视的挑战。北极当地的空气污染可能很严重，远远超过空气质量标准，损害公众健康，影响生态系统。特别是在冬季，污染可能会在逆温层下积累。然而，造成污染的排放源既没有得到很好的识别和量化，也没有很好地了解形成污染的相关大气机制。在夏季，北方森林大火会造成严重的大气污染。尽管北极地区经常暴露在空气污染中，但既没有具体的流行病学研究，也没有具体的毒理学健康影响研究。因此，目前很难估计对当地人口的影响。北极的社会经济发展已经开始，预计未来将有重大意义。随着自然资源开采的发展，北极目的地航运可能会增加，旅游业可能会扩大。这种发展不仅将导致生活在北极的人口增长，而且可能会增加排放的类型和数量。目前的清单显示，排放的数量和位置有很大的差距，这是模型预测的一个重要不确定性来源，模型预测往往与观测值有很大偏差。对于旨在评估北极地区空气污染影响的建模研究来说，这是一个挑战。因此，考虑到根据未来北极经济发展情景估计排放量的额外不确定性，对未来的预测更加困难。
Air pollution in the Arctic caused by local emission sources is a challenge that is important but often overlooked. Local Arctic air pollution can be severe and significantly exceed air quality standards, impairing public health and affecting ecosystems. Specifically in the wintertime, pollution can accumulate under inversion layers. However, neither the contributing emission sources are well identified and quantified nor the relevant atmospheric mechanisms forming pollution are well understood. In the summer, boreal forest fires cause high levels of atmospheric pollution. Despite the often high exposure to air pollution, there are neither specific epidemiological nor toxicological health impact studies in the Arctic. Hence, effects on the local population are difficult to estimate at present. Socioeconomic development of the Arctic is already occurring and expected to be significant in the future. Arctic destination shipping is likely to increase with the development of natural resource extraction, and tourism might expand. Such development will not only lead to growth in the population living in the Arctic but will likely increase emission types and magnitudes. Present‐day inventories show a large spread in the amount and location of emissions representing a significant source of uncertainty in model predictions that often deviate significantly from observations. This is a challenge for modeling studies that aim to assess the impacts of within Arctic air pollution. Prognoses for the future are hence even more difficult, given the additional uncertainty of estimating emissions based on future Arctic economic development scenarios.