Money and interest rates
Money and interest rates
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货币和利率
DOI：
10.21034/qr.2541
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Warren E. Weber
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cyril Monnet;Warren E. Weber
本研究描述并调和了两种常见的、看似矛盾的关于货币政策关系的观点：货币和利率之间的关系。自1960年以来，大约40个国家的数据支持费舍尔方程的观点，即这些变量是正相关的。但考虑到预期的研究支持流动性效应的观点，即它们是负相关的。一个简单的模型结合了两种观点，并表明哪种观点在任何时候都适用，这取决于货币变化发生的时间和公众期望它持续多久。一个预期不会改变未来货币增长的意外货币变化会使利率向相反方向移动;一个预期会改变未来货币增长的意外货币变化会使利率向同一方向移动。该研究还表明，将货币政策作为利率而不是货币的规则并不会改变这些变量之间的关系。
This study describes and reconciles two common, seemingly contradictory views about a key monetary policy relationship: that between money and interest rates. Data since 1960 for about 40 countries support the Fisher equation view, that these variables are positively related. But studies taking expectations into account support the liquidity effect view, that they are negatively related. A simple model incorporates both views and demonstrates that which view applies at any time depends on when the change in money occurs and how long the public expects it to last. A surprise money change that is not expected to change future money growth moves interest rates in the opposite direction; one that is expected to change future money growth moves interest rates in the same direction. The study also demonstrates that stating monetary policy as a rule for interest rates rather than money does not change the relationship between these variables.